Andy Burnham secured a commanding victory in the Makerfield by-election, setting the stage for a potential Labour leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer. The former Greater Manchester Mayor defeated Reform UK's Robert Kenyon with a majority of 9,231, outperforming Labour's 2024 general election result by nearly 4,000 votes. He garnered 54.8% of the vote, exceeding opinion poll predictions, while Kenyon trailed with 34.5%.
The victory propels Burnham back into Parliament amid intense speculation that he could move to replace Sir Keir within weeks or even days. Some allies reportedly consider urging the Prime Minister to step aside to avoid a divisive contest, though Sir Keir has vowed to resist any removal attempts.
What a Burnham Government Could Mean for London
As political turmoil unfolds, millions of voters, including Londoners, question how a Burnham administration would differ from Sir Keir's. Concerns arise over a potential anti-London agenda that could harm the capital and the broader economy.
Tax Policies
Burnham has expressed support for a land value tax (LVT), which would disproportionately affect London due to its high land prices. Replacing council tax with an LVT could increase property tax bills for hundreds of thousands of Londoners by £1,000 annually. Alternatively, it might replace stamp duty. Burnham has downplayed immediate wealth tax plans but previously endorsed reintroducing the 50p top income tax rate and adjusting personal allowance levels. He has also suggested replacing inheritance tax with a care levy, though he recently emphasized fiscal caution.
Mortgages, Inequality, and Markets
Financial market reactions to a Burnham premiership remain uncertain. His leftward tilt could benefit deprived London communities but may require higher taxes or borrowing to fund public spending. Chancellor Rachel Reeves gained City confidence through fiscal rule commitments, and Burnham has echoed support for those rules. However, losing market confidence risks repeating the fallout from Liz Truss's 2022 mini-budget, which raised borrowing costs, particularly for Londoners with large mortgages.
Transport
Reeves has already redirected Treasury investment toward regions. Burnham, a vocal critic of London-centric investment, would likely accelerate funding shifts away from the capital. This could reduce money for key infrastructure projects and lower central funding for Transport for London, potentially increasing fares. He advocates devolution, possibly granting London Mayor Sir Sadiq Khan control over commuter rail lines.
Housing
As mayor, Burnham championed renters' rights, including a rent freeze call, and promoted eco-friendly social housing. The Government has addressed London's housing crisis through the Renters' Rights Act and agreements to reduce affordable housing requirements in some developments. However, Burnham's "Manchesterism" approach may face challenges in London's complex property market, while achieving Labour's 1.5 million new homes target remains difficult.
Power and Representation
Sir Keir's cabinet includes several London MPs, such as Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy (Tottenham) and Communities Secretary Steve Reed (Streatham and Croydon North). A Burnham government would likely elevate more MPs from outside London, reducing the capital's influence.
Brexit
Burnham supports closer EU ties, aligning with most Londoners who voted 60/40 to Remain. He has taken a more pro-EU stance than the Government, stating he hopes to see the UK rejoin the EU in his lifetime. Under pressure from Reform UK and the Green Party, Sir Keir's government has increasingly criticized Brexit's economic damage.
Heathrow Third Runway
Burnham previously warned that Heathrow expansion could divert investment to London at the expense of the North. If he becomes PM, speculation suggests Ed Miliband might become Chancellor. Miliband, as Net Zero Secretary, has opposed a third runway unless it aligns with climate commitments. Some unions support expansion.
The by-election result signals a potential shift in Labour leadership and policy direction, with significant implications for London and the UK.
