As the UK marks the tenth anniversary of its Brexit referendum, Iceland is approaching its own moment of truth about the European Union, albeit from the opposite direction. On 29 August, Icelanders will vote on whether to resume negotiations with Brussels about joining the EU. Iceland originally applied in 2009 after the financial crash but pulled out of talks in 2013, citing the need for a referendum.
Referendum Accelerated by Geopolitical Shifts
After more than a decade on hold, membership talks are back on the agenda. Iceland's youngest ever prime minister, Kristrún Frostadóttir, had expected a referendum in 2027. However, Donald Trump's threats to invade Greenland prompted the government to bring the vote forward, driven by sudden geopolitical focus on the Arctic.
While fear of US invasion has convinced some Icelanders to join the EU, the island remains divided. Brexit has become a watchword on both sides of the debate.
Pro-EU and Eurosceptic Perspectives
For the pro-EU camp, British Leave campaign misinformation and the UK's struggles since exiting the EU are evidence for why Iceland should join. Foreign minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir said, "I am fearing that we will face a Brexit moment," referring to disputed claims about UK payments to the EU. She added, "Brexit should be an example of how not to run a campaign."
In the Eurosceptic camp, the UK's difficulties are seen as reasons not to join. Haraldur Ólafsson of anti-EU group Heimssýn told the Reykjavík Grapevine, "The EU wanted to make Britain's departure as painful as possible. What is lost in one day can take many hundreds of years to get back."
Public Opinion and Key Issues
Polls show the pro-EU campaign has work to do. A recent Gallup poll found 54% opposed joining the EU and 46% in favour. Another poll showed 53% would vote yes to resuming talks, with 47% opposed. Even if Icelanders vote yes, they will have a second referendum on any terms of entry.
Fishing is a major issue, with fisheries assets valued at about €7.3 billion in 2023. The EU has hinted at a possible exemption for Iceland. Another key topic is the euro, as Iceland has a history of high inflation and high interest rates. Freyja Steingrímsdóttir of the Association of Icelandic Journalists noted, "Probably more Icelanders would like to join the eurozone than actually the EU."
Sovereignty and Independence
The most emotive argument is sovereignty, deeply embedded in Iceland's national identity. Iceland gained full independence from Denmark only in 1944. Politics professor Hulda Þórisdóttir said, "This idea of a hard fought independence is very much still alive with the Icelandic national soul." Pro-EU campaigners argue that a strong alliance with European nations can strengthen sovereignty, with a sense that "we are alone at sea" if not inside the EU.
The referendum is complicated by domestic and international forces, including the potential impact of AI tools on information quality. As experts warn, Iceland may struggle to ensure voters have clear and correct information.
Flying between Reykjavík and Nuuk in January, it was clear how isolated both islands are. Whether or not Icelanders vote to restart EU negotiations, Brussels and continental Europe will remain geographically far away.
