Sussan Ley's leadership of the Liberal Party is effectively over, according to senior Coalition sources, following a dramatic split over hate speech laws that has fractured the Coalition for the second time in eight months. Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie are the leading contenders to replace her, with a potential challenge expected to materialise as early as Friday, after the day of mourning for the Bondi massacre.
The crisis erupted after Ley sacked three Nationals senators for crossing the floor on the Albanese government's hate speech laws, prompting all Nationals frontbenchers, including leader David Littleproud, to resign from the shadow ministry. Littleproud described the Coalition as “untenable” following the sackings, and senior Coalition sources believe his own leadership may also be at risk.
Multiple Liberal MPs described Ley's position as “terminal” and “untenable”, with one stating, “You can't come back from this – it's done and dusted.” Another MP said her leadership had become “toxic and terminal” for the party, calling for a new leader and a “merit only approach” to frontbench positions. A petition for a leadership spill could be signed within the next 48 hours.
Hastie and Taylor both belong to the right faction, meaning only one can realistically contest a ballot. Sources say the pair need to resolve this among themselves to allow the party to rally behind a single candidate. Tim Wilson and Ted O'Brien have also been mentioned as potential candidates, but are considered outsiders. O'Brien, who is factionally unaligned, could serve as a compromise candidate similar to Scott Morrison in 2018.
Some Liberals have warned against allowing the Nationals to dictate the Liberal leadership, with one MP stating, “If we decide to change our leader now, we're caving into the demands of the Nationals again.” Others caution that an immediate challenge would be reckless, but many believe a swift change is necessary to avoid further damage. The party room is scheduled to meet when parliament returns on 3 February.
