Relief was palpable on Andy Burnham's face as he was declared the winner in the Makerfield by-election overnight. Polls had predicted a 7 to 10 point gap between Labour and Reform, but Burnham secured nearly 55% of the vote against Reform's 35% – a 20-point margin that is remarkable given Labour's struggling national polling.
A Bittersweet Result for Reform
Until Andy Burnham entered the race, Makerfield had become 'Farage country'. However, the Manchester Mayor's star power ensured the contest was never close. This emphatic victory will convince Team Burnham that only he possesses the stardust to halt Reform's advance, as Nigel Farage's party continues to lead in national polls. If the swings seen in Makerfield were replicated in a general election, Labour would likely secure a majority.
Yet the result is not all bad for Reform. Their share of the vote increased compared to 2024. Meanwhile, the Conservatives were squeezed mercilessly, but with another by-election win in Scotland overnight, Kemi Badenoch's position appears safe – a win for Farage in itself.
Restore's Role
Rupert Lowe's Restore party garnered nearly 7% of the vote, but that alone was insufficient to hand victory to Labour. Restore is an irritant that Farage can easily manage, but he would be wise to overestimate rather than underestimate Lowe's impact.
Catastrophe for Starmer
For Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, the result is catastrophic. It will now be virtually impossible for him to rally enough support to remain in power. Aides and allies will likely advise a dignified exit over an ugly showdown, meaning Burnham could be Prime Minister within weeks.
What Happens Next?
At face value, Burnham would be unwise to risk the 2024 majority with a snap general election. But if the 'Burnham bounce' is real and sustainable for at least a few months, he may see this as his one big chance to neuter Reform once safely in Number 10. His denials about calling a snap poll were hardly unequivocal, as he still needs the backing of Labour parliamentarians wary of risking their seats.
Burnham is uniquely popular right now and may never be as popular as in his early days in Downing Street. His team may suspect Reform is unprepared. With the Lib Dems and Greens swallowed up by Burnham's progressive majority in Makerfield, his aides might believe a resulting traffic light coalition would be a small price for pulling the rug out from under Reform and securing a fresh mandate for the so-called 'King of the North'.
Upshot: this was a massive win for Burnham, and Starmer's days are numbered. Reform can draw positives and negatives from the result, while the Tories find themselves in an utterly miserable position. A snap election, I would say, is underpriced. Burnham has the wind in his sails, and he knows it.
