The UK government is reportedly in formal discussions with North Macedonia to establish a new migrant 'return hub', as part of its strategy to reduce the number of small boat crossings in the English Channel. This development emerges after Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer axed the controversial Rwanda deportation scheme upon entering office.
A New Plan to Deter Channel Crossings
According to reports, talks with the Balkan nation began in the autumn. The proposed agreement would see the UK pay North Macedonia for each migrant it accepts. In return, Britain would also invest in the country and bolster its security, particularly against threats from Russia.
Under this model, migrants would not be detained and would have the freedom to leave if they wished. They would be offered the chance to claim asylum in North Macedonia or obtain work visas to fill labour shortages in specific sectors. This approach marks a distinct shift from the detained-and-processed model of the previous Conservative government's Rwanda scheme.
Political Hypocrisy and a Surge in Arrivals
The move is likely to spark accusations of political hypocrisy. Sir Keir Starmer repeatedly criticised the Rwanda plan during the election campaign, pledging instead to 'smash the gangs' facilitating the crossings. However, in a recent letter to French President Emmanuel Macron, the Prime Minister conceded there is currently 'no effective deterrent' for migrants attempting the Channel journey.
The urgency for a new policy is underscored by the latest figures. So far this year, 39,292 migrants have arrived in the UK via small boats, a 17% increase compared to the same point in 2023. This year's total is already the second-highest on record since the crisis began seven years ago.
Broader Strategy and Data Gaps
The UK is also in talks with Kosovo regarding a similar returns hub, though other nations like Bosnia and Herzegovina have ruled out participation. Using a third country as a hub would allow the UK to remove migrants who originate from nations deemed too unsafe for direct return, such as Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, new research from the University of Oxford's Migration Observatory highlights significant gaps in the government's data on illegal migration. The study identified 10 major areas where information is lacking, including:
- The size of the undocumented population in the UK.
- Detailed data on immigration enforcement and returns.
- The specific impact of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) on immigration cases.
Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory, stated that the lack of clear data makes it harder for the public and policymakers to make informed choices on issues like ECHR membership. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp has accused the Labour government of 'hiding the very data the public need' to understand border security.
When questioned about the North Macedonia reports, a Downing Street spokesman declined to comment directly, stating the government would not provide a 'running commentary' but was focused on 'serious action' for border security.
