A study published on Thursday has revealed a significant increase in violence across several African nations following Donald Trump’s abrupt decision last year to dissolve the US Agency for International Development (USAID). While the authors did not directly attribute the surge in conflict to the aid cuts, they concluded that 'large-scale, sudden aid cuts can destabilise fragile settings.'
The research, conducted by academics from European and American universities and published in the journal Science, noted that the sudden withdrawal of USAID resources interrupted existing contracts, staffing, and aid procurement. It stated: 'The abrupt withdrawal of USAID led to a significant and sustained increase in conflict across Africa’s most USAID-dependent regions.' The authors clarified that their findings do not suggest that increased aid necessarily reduces conflict, but rather highlight 'the effect of a sudden and unexpected disruption.'
USAID, once a leading global aid donor, had provided crucial support to African countries grappling with conflict and instability. The Trump administration’s move effectively eliminated over 90 per cent of foreign aid contracts, cutting approximately $60 billion in funding. In Nigeria, USAID support had helped victims of the militant Boko Haram group; in Ethiopia's Tigray region, officials relied heavily on US funds for recovery; and in northern Ivory Coast, USAID had made significant commitments to counter extremism.
Africa faces a threat from jihadis more than any other region, conflict experts say. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) reported on Wednesday that jihadis in the region have been increasingly targeting civilians over the last four years. Ladd Serwat, senior Africa analyst at ACLED, noted that some USAID programs may have helped prevent spillover from conflict zones, adding: 'We now see increasing insurgency and spillover, so some of those programs may have supported these communities from insurgent threats, and now they are no longer active.'
Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale School of Public Health, said: 'The lasting problem with the shuttering of USAID is likely going to be that for much of its conflict prevention work, even if you put back all the money ... the experience is gone.'
