A new study has found that the Trump administration's decision last year to dissolve the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) was followed by a significant increase in violence in several African countries that the agency had supported. The study, published in the journal Science, examined the impact of the abrupt shutdown of USAID, which once served as a leading global aid donor.
Key Findings of the Study
The researchers, from several universities in Europe and the United States, did not directly blame the USAID cuts for the rise in violence. However, they concluded that the findings demonstrate how large-scale, sudden aid cuts can destabilize fragile settings. They emphasized that this does not prove that more aid reduces conflict, but rather highlights the effect of a sudden and unexpected disruption.
For many years, USAID provided crucial support to African countries affected by conflict and violence. The Trump administration eliminated more than 90% of foreign aid contracts, effectively cutting some $60 billion in funding. This abrupt withdrawal interrupted contracts, staffing, and aid procurement across the region.
Correlation Between Aid Cuts and Violence
The study revealed a correlation between the shutdown of USAID and an increase in violence in regions of Africa that had historically received the most support. Africa faces a significant threat from jihadis, more than any other region globally. According to a report by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), jihadis in the region have been increasingly involved in violence and targeting civilians over the past four years.
USAID had been a key funding partner for many African countries, providing support for governments and aid groups to respond to multiple crises. For example, in Nigeria, USAID helped victims of the militant Boko Haram group, which emerged in 2002. In Ethiopia's fragile Tigray region, officials relied heavily on U.S. funds for recovery efforts after a war that killed hundreds of thousands. In northern Ivory Coast, a frontline in the global fight against extremism, USAID made significant financial commitments to counter the spread of al-Qaida and the Islamic State group.
Experts Weigh In
Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the Humanitarian Research Lab at the Yale School of Public Health, who was not involved in the study, underscored the lasting impact of the funding cuts. He noted that even if all the money were restored, the experience and institutional knowledge are gone. Ladd Serwat, senior Africa analyst at ACLED, added that some USAID programs may have helped prevent spillover from conflict zones. He observed increasing insurgency and spillover, suggesting that those programs, now inactive, might have supported communities against insurgent threats.
