A surge in support for Reform UK in next week's local elections may not translate into seat gains for Nigel Farage's party, but could instead hand victories to the Liberal Democrats, according to polling expert Professor John Curtice.
Writing in the Mirror, Sir John said that while Reform is drawing votes from both Labour and the Conservatives, the Tories have the 'most to lose' as they defend nearly 1,000 of the 1,641 council seats up for grabs on May 1. The elections, delayed in some areas due to devolution reforms, cover 23 local authorities and include six mayoral contests and a by-election in Runcorn & Helsby.
Sir John noted that when these seats were last contested four years ago, the Conservatives were 'riding high' under Boris Johnson. He cautioned that Reform's vote is 'spread too thinly' to guarantee many seats, similar to last year's general election where the party won more votes than the Lib Dems but far fewer seats.
'In taking votes from the Conservatives, Reform could simply help the Liberal Democrats, who always do better in local elections than in the national polls, take key seats from Kemi Badenoch's party, such as in Oxfordshire,' Sir John said. Labour could also benefit, with Nottinghamshire a key target.
Reform is eyeing 'big gains' in Lincolnshire, the most Eurosceptic part of the country, but Sir John stressed that if its support is less thinly spread, it could achieve more. A recent More in Common MRP poll suggested Reform would win 180 Commons seats on a 23.7% vote share if a general election were held now, with Labour and the Tories tied on 165 seats each.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Chancellor Pat McFadden, and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband are among those who could lose their seats under that scenario. However, experts caution that polls so far from the next general election, due in 2029, should be treated with caution.
