Ministers are operating without crucial knowledge of how many illegal migrants are in Britain or the scale of human rights law being used to avoid deportation, a major new study has found.
Critical Information Gaps Exposed
Research from the University of Oxford's Migration Observatory has identified ten major areas where official information is lacking. These significant gaps include data on immigration enforcement, returns, and the size of the undocumented population living in the UK.
The analysis highlights a particular difficulty in understanding how many immigration cases are affected by the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Both the Conservative Party and Reform UK have pledged to withdraw from the convention, yet experts found little data exists to show who applies for permission to stay under it, how many are granted, or who successfully appeals against removal.
Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory, stated: 'The UK's membership of ECHR is a major issue in public debate, in large part due to its impacts on migration policy. But the current data can't give us a clear picture of where and when it has most impact.'
Political Criticism and Government Reforms
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp accused the government of 'hiding the very data the public need' to understand border issues. He claimed ministers were 'refusing to publish key enforcement data' and avoiding disclosure of how many cases are affected by human rights law, thereby 'keeping the country in the dark'.
This research emerges as Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announces a series of reforms aimed at reducing immigration. Key proposals include:
- New legislation to prevent human rights laws from frustrating deportations.
- Making refugee status temporary, with a required wait of 20 years instead of five to apply for permanent settlement.
- Limiting asylum seekers with denied claims to a single appeal against removal, rather than multiple challenges.
Systemic Data Challenges and Glimmers of Hope
The Migration Observatory's study also pointed to poorly linked records that fail to track a person's complete migration journey. Senior researcher Peter Walsh explained this makes it hard to follow asylum seekers through the system, especially those who are refused but not returned.
Despite these challenges, researchers identified potential for improvement. Recent pilots, such as linking HMRC and Home Office datasets, and changes by the Office for National Statistics in measuring net migration, show promise.
Research affiliate Georgina Sturge noted: 'The challenges are often because migration is hugely complex and interacts with every part of society... That said, new approaches already being piloted have the potential to improve things significantly.'
In a related enforcement development this week, the Home Office revealed 60 delivery riders are to be deported after being found working illegally. A nationwide crackdown on the gig-economy last month led to 171 arrests. Those detained included Chinese nationals in Solihull, Bangladeshi and Indian riders in Newham, east London, and Indian delivery riders in Norwich.
