A significant gap between public perception and reality on UK net migration has been exposed by a new study, published as official figures show a sharp decline. Research by the thinktank British Future found that a majority of voters mistakenly believe net migration is rising, despite it dropping to its lowest level in years.
Official data released on Thursday showed net migration fell to 171,000 in 2025, down from a peak of 944,000 in the year to March 2023. The decline was driven by a 47% drop in non-EU arrivals for work, according to the Office for National Statistics. Over the 12 months to December 2025, an estimated 813,000 people immigrated to the UK while 642,000 emigrated.
British Future's survey of 3,003 adults found that 67% of those with sceptical views on immigration believed net migration increased in 2025, compared with 37% of those with more liberal views. Six in 10 people who want immigration reduced think numbers are still rising. Only 15% expect net migration to be lower next year.
The research also highlighted misperceptions about the composition of immigration. People believe asylum seekers account for 33% of immigration, when the real figure is about 9%, and think students make up 24%, when in fact they represent over half. Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said the perception gap was shaping politics broadly, adding: 'It's little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down.'
The findings come amid hostile political rhetoric on immigration across parties. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood acknowledged a 69% drop in net migration but said the government would go further due to pressure on communities. Shadow home secretary Chris Philp called for more action, while Reform UK has pledged 'net zero' immigration. Sophie Stowers of More in Common noted that images of small boat arrivals often overshadow official figures, and that net migration is only part of the story for voters.
