Labour MPs will reportedly use an expected fall in net migration to pile pressure on the Home Office to reverse its plans for further immigration reforms, as figures due this week are projected to show net migration at its lowest level since the pandemic.
Net Migration Decline Expected
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is set to publish net migration figures for 2025 on Thursday. Migration expert Dr Ben Brindle from the University of Oxford suggested the numbers could show net migration falling below 200,000 for the first time since March 2021. However, he cautioned that this decline is likely temporary and could reverse as emigration levels drop.
Labour MPs' Pressure Campaign
Labour MPs told The Times they plan to use the upcoming figures to urge the Home Office to abandon further immigration reforms. These include increasing the default qualifying period for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) from five to ten years, making migrants wait until citizenship for benefits and social housing, and extending the wait for long-term residency to up to 30 years for those in the country illegally.
Labour MP Andy McDonald, opposed to the reforms, expressed hope that the figures would prompt a rethink. He stated: "There is something innately un-British in changing the qualifying period for ILR retrospectively, which will cause massive upheaval for workers who have already come and settled here at our request. They and their families are valued members of our communities. They pay their taxes and contribute positively to our economy and our society. To disrupt all of that is beyond cruel and economically foolish, especially given the huge falls in net migration, yet with still sky-high vacancies remaining in social care and other sectors that we cannot otherwise fill. This bad policy needs to be quickly binned."
Temporary Nature of Decline
Dr Brindle explained that the decline in net migration is driven by a spike in people leaving the UK after immigration restrictions introduced by the last Conservative government. "Net migration stood at 204,000 in June 2025 and we know that the government has been granting fewer visas since then so I’m expecting further declines. Quite how much net migration will fall is incredibly uncertain, though," he said. He added that many migrants who entered after Brexit still hold temporary visas, and their decisions to stay or leave will significantly impact net migration in the coming years. "Any decline in net migration below around 200,000 is likely to be temporary. Many migrants only stay in the UK for a few years, so higher levels of immigration tend to be followed by higher levels of emigration. Once people who came earlier in the decade leave, emigration will decline, so the ‘net’ figure will begin to tick back up. In fact, in five years’ time, net migration levels could look similar to what they are today."
Political Context
The pushback against the government's migration reforms comes as Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham attempts to return to Westminster via a by-election in Makerfield, positioning himself to challenge Sir Keir Starmer. Burnham, the most senior Labour figure to criticise Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's reforms, previously stated they would leave many migrants "in limbo and unable to integrate." He would be expected to reverse the plans if he became prime minister. The Home Office has been contacted for comment.
