New population figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that net overseas migration to Australia has been trending lower for more than a year, contradicting claims by right-wing media and thinktanks that immigration is at 'record' levels and 'out of control'. The ABS estimates net migration was just under 316,000 in the year to March, down from a peak of nearly 556,000 in September 2023.
While migration remains high compared to the pre-pandemic average of about 230,000 per year, the current figure is 40% below the post-Covid peak. Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that the latest data is 17,000 lower than Treasury forecasts in the March budget. 'We are now 17,000 people lower than the Treasury forecast for net overseas migration,' he said on Thursday.
Abul Rizvi, a former deputy secretary of the immigration department, described the figures as a 'tonic' to outlandish claims designed to whip up an anti-immigration 'frenzy'. He accused some organisations of misusing separate arrivals and departures data to inflate migration statistics. 'We do need to discuss immigration levels in an open, honest and transparent way,' Rizvi said. 'But these media outlets and thinktanks do not seem interested in an honest debate. They prefer to mislead and whip up hate.'
Treasury officials assume net migration will slow to 335,100 in the year to June, then to about 262,000 in the current financial year, and eventually steady at around 230,000 annually for the rest of the decade. However, the government largely accepts net migration as something that happens rather than something it plans. The labour market has comfortably absorbed the post-Covid surge, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% in July, a level maintained for 18 months.
