A decade after the so-called migration crisis of 2015, Europe remains trapped in a perpetual state of emergency, according to a new analysis. The Greek word 'krisis' implies an exceptional moment, but for Europe, it has become an enduring condition. In 2015, one million people sought refuge in Europe, fleeing war and persecution. Since then, migration has been weaponised to such an extent that it is hard to recall a time when it was not considered a crisis.
The narrative of a permanent crisis does not reflect an inability to cope with arrivals, but rather the profits reaped from manufacturing fear. The European border-industrial complex is booming, with Frontex's budget soaring from €90 million in 2014 to over €1 billion this year, despite allegations of human rights violations, which Frontex denies. Private defence and security companies have also benefited from lucrative deals that have further militarised borders.
Conservative and far-right forces have risen across Europe, promising that 2015 will not be repeated. The far right has exploited anti-migrant sentiments and made racist 'great replacement' conspiracies mainstream. However, the increasingly hostile environment for migrants and racialised minorities is largely due to centrist parties seeking to outbid the hard right. In Germany, the CDU's Friedrich Merz has pursued an aggressive anti-migration agenda, calling for 'large-scale deportations'. This has not halved the AfD's vote share, as Merz promised in 2018, but instead seen it surge from 5% to 26%.
In the UK, the Labour government, facing pressure from Reform UK, announced 'the most sweeping asylum reforms in modern times' in November. These plans would make refugee status temporary, cut benefits, and place many in a decades-long limbo. Reform welcomed the reforms, and far-right activist Tommy Robinson celebrated what he called the obliteration of the Overton window. The analysis argues that such cruelty only emboldens the far right, which will find other minorities to target if asylum numbers fall.
