For ten years, Europe has been locked in a self-proclaimed state of migration emergency, a condition that has primarily served to enrich border security firms and empower racist political forces, according to a leading researcher. The narrative of perpetual crisis, argues Dr Maurice Stierl of the University of Osnabrück, has become a powerful tool for those advocating for a hardened 'Fortress Europe'.
The Political Economy of a Manufactured Crisis
The concept of a crisis, from the Greek 'krisis', implies a decisive, disruptive moment. Yet since the significant movement of people in 2015, when around 1 million individuals sought refuge in Europe, the issue has been permanently framed as an existential threat. This enduring 'crisis' state does not reflect an inability to cope, Stierl contends, but rather a reality where too many entities profit from its continuation.
This narrative has driven a massive transformation of Europe's border infrastructure. The budget for the EU border agency, Frontex, has skyrocketed from €90 million in 2014 to over €1 billion in 2025, despite facing repeated allegations of complicity in human rights violations, which it denies. Private defence and security contractors have secured lucrative deals, creating a booming 'border-industrial complex' built on a political economy of fear.
Centrist Complicity and the Rise of the Hard Right
The primary political beneficiaries of this decade-long panic, the analysis states, are hard-right and far-right parties. However, their ascendancy is significantly aided by centrist parties attempting to outflank them on anti-migration rhetoric. Germany presents a stark example. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which entered parliament in 2017, has seen its poll numbers surge to around 26%.
This rise has coincided with the rightward shift of the centre-right CDU under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who in October 2025 suggested resolving Germany's "problem in the cityscape" through "large-scale deportations". This strategy of imitation, Stierl argues, has failed to contain the far right and instead normalised its discourse.
The pattern is mirrored in the UK. Under pressure from the hard-right Reform UK party, the Labour government announced sweeping asylum reforms in November 2025. The plans, which would make refugee status temporary and restrict benefits, were welcomed by Reform and celebrated by far-right activist Tommy Robinson. This approach, the article warns, does not defeat the hard right but emboldens it, as the goalposts of acceptable cruelty continually shift.
The Next Decade: Fortification or Resistance?
The EU's chosen path appears set on further fortification. The EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, coming into full force in 2026, institutionalises the crisis response. It will allow states to accelerate border procedures, extend detention, and limit asylum rights during vaguely defined "exceptional situations" that, according to Amnesty International, may become the norm.
In a world of war, climate breakdown, and economic disparity, Stierl asserts that heightened security and deportations will not 'solve' migration. Instead, they risk eroding democracy, deepening social divides, and amplifying racism. The ideas of the far right are gaining transnational traction, with Donald Trump's administration framing migration as a threat to prevent Europe's "civilizational erasure".
The conclusion is clear: when mainstream parties engage in a politics of cruelty to compete with forces founded on cruelty, defeat is inevitable. The resistance, therefore, must form around the issue of migration itself. From civilian rescue operations in the Mediterranean to disrupting deportation flights and fostering solidarity in cities, defending fellow humans is presented as the essential fight against growing authoritarianism. How the decade from 2026 to 2035 will be remembered, Stierl concludes, is ultimately a choice yet to be made.
