Barring a dramatic political shift, the Scottish National Party (SNP) is projected to emerge victorious in the 2026 Holyrood elections. While it remains uncertain if John Swinney's party will secure an overall majority, current polling strongly indicates it will once again be the largest group in the Scottish Parliament. This points towards either another minority SNP government or a renewed coalition with the Scottish Greens.
A Cycle Scottish Labour Cannot Break
This potential outcome represents a profound challenge for Scottish Labour. After almost 19 years of SNP governance, the electorate appears ready to endorse five more. The party that lost power in 2007 has since failed in three consecutive attempts to reclaim it: in 2011, 2016, and 2021.
The initial loss is often attributed to the unpopularity of Tony Blair's UK Labour government and the Iraq War, which allowed Alex Salmond's slick populist campaign to triumph over Jack McConnell. However, Labour's subsequent inability to regain power, even during periods of unpopular Conservative governments in Westminster, suggests deeper, more fundamental issues.
An Existential Crisis for Scottish Labour?
The recent 2024 UK general election saw Labour recover many Scottish Westminster seats, fuelling hopes of a Holyrood comeback. Yet, this momentum has stalled. The SNP's wobble following Nicola Sturgeon's resignation and Humza Yousaf's brief tenure provided an opening, but Labour's revival under Anas Sarwar has been short-lived.
Critically, the SNP's threat was never purely constitutional. By blending nationalism with progressive politics, it positioned itself as Scotland's main centre-left force. Voters seemingly adopted a strategy of rejecting independence but consistently returning the SNP to Holyrood to advocate for Scotland and secure favourable terms from the Treasury.
Now, Labour faces a stark reality. As one insider noted, the party has failed to give Scotland a compelling reason to reinstate it in almost two decades. On key issues like NHS waiting times, the educational attainment gap, and vanishing energy jobs, Labour is perceived to have no clear answers.
The Uncomfortable Questions Ahead
If the polls prove accurate and Labour suffers a fifth consecutive Holyrood defeat in May 2026, the party will be forced to confront painful questions. Leadership changes and policy shifts may be discussed, but the problem may be more existential.
Three damning hypotheses present themselves: Labour loses Holyrood when UK Labour is unpopular; it cannot regain Holyrood when UK Conservatives are unpopular; and it cannot regain Holyrood when UK Labour is unpopular. If true, the issue transcends any single leader like Sarwar or Keir Starmer.
The atmosphere within Scottish Labour is described as glum, with momentum lost and no clear strategy for recovery. Voters, aware of the SNP's governmental failings, are no longer listening to Labour's critiques. They want viable solutions, which the party has struggled to provide.
The ultimate, uncomfortable truth Scottish Labour may soon face is that the party which once held an iron grip on Scottish politics might no longer be capable of winning a devolved election, destined instead to be a perpetual challenger to the dominant SNP.
