The political landscape in Scotland has undergone a dramatic and painful shift for the Labour Party. Anas Sarwar, who just a short time ago was tipped to become Scotland's first Labour First Minister since 2007, now faces a desperate battle to avoid being eclipsed by Reform UK in next year's Holyrood elections.
A Stunning Reversal of Fortunes
Recent opinion polls paint a bleak picture for Scottish Labour, placing the party at around 17 per cent support. This figure is roughly half the level currently commanded by the SNP. The slump has transformed Sarwar's trajectory from prospective leader of the nation to a politician fighting merely for second place.
The roots of this decline are complex, mirroring some of the challenges faced by Labour across England and Wales. A difficult economic climate and rising social tensions have been compounded by a series of avoidable scandals and policy missteps emanating from Westminster. For Scottish Labour, a persistent and damaging perception remains: that the London headquarters treats its Scottish operation as little more than a "branch office".
Westminster Tensions and Internal Friction
This perception of neglect has been exacerbated by recent personnel changes. The popular Scottish Secretary, Ian Murray, was replaced in the last reshuffle by Douglas Alexander, a close ally of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Alexander, who returned to the Commons last year, was promptly put in charge of the upcoming Scottish parliament election campaign. This move caused significant discomfort within Scottish Labour circles, despite acknowledged friction between Sarwar and Murray.
Sarwar has moved to assert his authority, starkly delineating the choice for Scottish voters. He recently stated, "I am the candidate for first minister. Keir Starmer is not standing to be first minister... John Swinney is standing to be first minister, and the choice people face is a third decade of SNP incompetence or a new direction." This declaration underscores the frustration felt by his team as the chaotic scene in London undermines their appeal at home.
Reform UK's Rise and the Future of Scottish Politics
The most startling potential outcome of the 2026 Holyrood election is the prospect of Reform UK becoming the principal opposition to the SNP. Historically, the party's pro-Union, anti-EU stance seemed poorly suited to a nation that voted Remain in 2016. However, the fragmentation of the traditional party system across Britain has created an opening.
Scotland's more proportional voting system could amplify this shift. A recent seat projection from Ballot Box Scotland illustrates the new reality: the SNP on 62 seats (close to a majority), Reform UK on 21, and Labour in third on 17. This would neatly split the opposition, potentially securing the SNP's dominance for years and marking an unlikely recovery from the turmoil of the Salmond-Sturgeon era.
While this political earthquake reshapes the Holyrood chamber, its immediate impact on the constitutional question appears limited. Voter sentiment on independence remains evenly divided, and the SNP is unlikely to push for a referendum without confidence of victory. The Labour government in Westminster would also point to the lack of an overwhelming pro-independence vote in the election as justification for refusing a new plebiscite, which requires Commons approval.
Furthermore, the post-Brexit landscape has complicated the independence project. An independent Scotland would face the complex tasks of applying for EU membership and establishing an economic border with the rest of the UK, alongside unresolved questions on currency and sovereignty. For now, the battle in Scotland is less about the Union and more about which party can credibly challenge a resurgent SNP.
