Tasmania has just held its second state election in 16 months, the shortest gap between state polls in Australia since Queensland in 1957. For some voters, it was their fifth trip to the ballot box in less than two years. The state’s Labor opposition faced the difficult task of explaining why voters were going through this so soon after rewarding federal Labor with two extra seats in Tasmania.
On Saturday, state Labor secured only 26% of the vote with almost 75% of ballots counted. The election was called after Labor moved a no-confidence motion in Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberal minority government, citing issues with budget management, proposed asset sales and major projects delivery. Yet Labor’s own budget repair proposals were modest and undermined by their support for the unpopular Macquarie Point stadium project. Their anti-asset-sales position was also undercut by their intent to sell the state’s share in the proposed Marinus Link Bass Strait connector.
The Liberals, meanwhile, switched from would-be privatisers to promising a government-owned insurance company, a concept that tapped into small business concerns and distracted the news cycle. The overall state vote share showed a swing of about 3% from Labor to the Liberals, who recorded 40% of the vote. A record field of 44 independents also gained support, in the absence of the Jacqui Lambie Network. The four most prominent independents polled strongly, but almost all others flopped.
Tasmania uses the Hare-Clark proportional representation system, where candidates compete against members of their own party as well as other parties. Each of the state’s five federal electorates elects seven state members in the 35-seat House of Assembly. The system makes majority government difficult, and with declining major party vote shares, non-majority parliaments look like the new normal.
Rockliff’s government has gained a seat in Braddon but appears to have lost one narrowly in Franklin, where independent Peter George took a seat. Labor seems to have held its 10 seats and is in the mix for a possible gain in Bass. Overall, Tasmania is back much where it was. Labor could govern with support from the Greens and leftwing independents, potentially holding 18 or 19 seats. However, Labor made no visible attempt to form government after the 2024 election or after the no-confidence motion in June.
Rockliff has stated his intention to ask the governor to renew his commission. By precedent, he must be granted this, whether or not he can prove he has 18 promised votes on confidence and supply. If he cannot arrange enough support, he can at least go back to parliament and defy it to vote him out. Another no-confidence motion would then be needed to install Labor leader Dean Winter as premier.
