Sir Keir Starmer's future as Labour leader could be decided by the outcome of nationwide elections scheduled for 7 May 2026, a leading polling expert has warned.
Nationwide Losses Forecast for Labour
Conservative peer Lord Robert Hayward has predicted the Prime Minister's party is on course for heavy defeats across England, Wales, and Scotland. He forecasts significant losses in English council elections, a defeat in the Welsh Senedd, and what he described as a "one hell of a battering" in the Scottish Parliament.
These bleak results could reignite intense speculation over Sir Keir's leadership, a debate that exploded into public view in November 2025 following anonymous briefings from his allies against potential rivals.
A "Cacophony of Winners" and London's Role
Lord Hayward suggested there would be no single victor on election night, but rather a "cacophony of winners." Labour is expected to suffer "very, very large" losses to Reform UK, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats, and pro-Gaza independent candidates in east London.
Despite the national picture, results in the capital could prove crucial for the Conservatives. Gains in London boroughs like Westminster or Barnet might help solidify Kemi Badenoch's position as Tory leader, which has appeared more secure recently due to improved personal polling.
"A few months ago it looked as if May 7 would be decisive for the leaderships of both Labour and Conservatives," Lord Hayward said. "As we move into 2026 it now looks as if the May elections could decide the fate of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, but it is less clear that that will be the case for Kemi Badenoch."
Constitutional Implications in Scotland and Wales
The expert indicated that the most long-term significance for the UK might stem from results in the devolved nations, rather than English council contests. In Scotland, Labour's earlier hopes of supplanting the SNP at Holyrood now seem unlikely, with the SNP, Greens, and Reform poised to perform well.
In Wales, a complicated picture emerges due to a changed electoral system, an enlarged Senedd, and a lowered voting age to 16. Following the Caerphilly by-election in October 2025, Plaid Cymru and Reform are expected to gain at Labour's expense.
Success for nationalist parties could have major constitutional ramifications. An SNP majority might reopen calls for a second Scottish independence referendum, while strong gains for Plaid Cymru could lead to louder demands for greater devolution to Wales.
The full impact of the May 2026 vote will become clearer in the days following the election, setting the political trajectory for the rest of the decade.
