The Liberal Party's victory in the Nepean byelection on Saturday night was celebrated with an enthusiasm that might suggest Jess Wilson had just won the Victorian election. At the Verve Bar in Rye Hotel, Wilson initially entered ahead of candidate Anthony Marsh, then paused to let him catch up so they could walk in together to thunderous applause. Deputy Liberal leader David Southwick introduced Wilson as the "next premier of Victoria," declaring the result proof that "the people of Nepean have said yes for Jess."
Wilson's Central Role in the Campaign
Wilson was a constant presence throughout the campaign, appearing on corflutes, flyers, and at pre-poll voting, where she spent hours distributing how-to-vote cards for most of the two-week early voting period. This underscored how much the Liberal leader had riding on the contest, in stark contrast to just a couple of years ago when such a byelection would barely have made headlines.
The Mornington Peninsula electorate, encompassing some of Victoria's wealthiest coastal suburbs, has been held by the Liberals for all but one term in the past 40 years. With Labor not contesting byelections in seats it does not hold, the result should have been straightforward. For example, in the 2023 Warrandyte byelection, without a Labor candidate, the Liberals secured 57% of first-preference votes and a two-candidate-preferred vote of 71%.
However, a combination of factors made many Liberals nervous: the surge of One Nation in the South Australian election, the circumstances behind former Nepean MP Sam Groth's resignation, the preselection of local mayor Anthony Marsh just weeks after he joined the party, and the rise of another local community independent.
Election Results and Analysis
As polls closed on Saturday, some Liberals predicted a tight result, but that did not materialise. By the end of the night, the Liberals recorded 38.5% of the primary vote, down 9.6%, although Marsh was comfortably elected on preferences. One Nation's Darren Hercus finished second with 24.7%, independent Tracee Hutchison polled 21.3%, the Greens 9.3%, and the remaining candidates shared 6.2%. On a Liberal-independent two-candidate-preferred count, Marsh secured 63.5%, representing a swing of 10.7% to the Liberals. Counting will continue on Monday, when the two-candidate-preferred count could change.
Liberal MPs attributed the win to several factors, chief among them Wilson's personal appeal, reflected in polling that shows her more popular than Labor Premier Jacinta Allan. Colleagues described Wilson as a "rock star," "superstar," and "legend" who thrives on campaigning and direct voter engagement. Notably, after years of internal division, MPs from across the party's factions, including former opposition leader Brad Battin, whom Wilson ousted in November, joined her regularly at pre-poll voting.
The campaign was tightly targeted, focusing on local issues such as upgrading Rosebud Hospital, road conditions, and crime. The party also ran a strong anti-One Nation message, with campaign materials arguing that a vote for the minor party was a "win for Jacinta Allan." In a social media video on the first day of early voting, Wilson stressed that the "only way" to remove a Labor government in November was to vote Liberal. This message clearly resonated with some voters.
Cautionary Notes from Pollsters
However, RedBridge pollster and former Labor strategist Kos Samaras warned that the Liberals should not be "popping champagne corks" just yet. "This is one of the wealthiest, oldest, asset-rich electorates in the country where 75% of the population live within 2km of the beach," Samaras said. "What they did was secure a seat they already held, with a swing against their candidate on primary, in a state where their opponent has been in government for 12 years."
To form government in November, the Coalition would need to win 16 seats, requiring a statewide swing of roughly 7-8%. By comparison, Jeff Kennett's 1992 victory came with a 5.8% swing, and Ted Baillieu secured government in 2010 with a 6.0% swing. Neither faced such serious competition from One Nation.
Wilson acknowledged this in her speech on Saturday night, stating that despite the win, "the equation has not changed." She said, "We still need to win 16 seats to change the government in November this year, and my commitment to Victorians, to everyone watching tonight, is that I will listen to you. I don't take your vote for granted, I have to earn your vote." She added that she would "take the lessons from tonight away and learn from them."
One Nation's Growing Influence
One Nation did not win, but its performance aligns with months of polling, and it performed particularly well in some of the electorate's more economically stressed areas. In booths such as Rosebud and Tootgarook, One Nation outpolled the Liberals. In Rosebud West (formerly Capel Sound), Marsh received 118 votes to Hercus's 117.
This should also concern Labor. At the 2022 election, Labor won 32.6% of the vote in Nepean. The independent secured over 21% while the Greens' vote rose only slightly, suggesting a significant share of former Labor voters either shifted to One Nation or voted Liberal to block it.
Benjamin Moffit, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Monash University and an expert on populism, estimates that between 10% and 15% of Labor voters defected to One Nation. "What that shows us is the South Australian election is not a fluke," Moffit said. "These kinds of numbers shouldn't be happening in this seat, in this state. The party has no ground game, no meaningful party organisation. If I was in One Nation HQ right now, I'd be rubbing my hands with glee."
He predicted that One Nation would be "competitive" in lower house seats and could "sweep at least a seat in every region" in the upper house. Samaras agreed, saying both major parties are "going to have their hands full" fending off One Nation. "Any seat that's got a lot of blue-collar workers, a lot of people under financial stress – doesn't matter who is holding them – they're going to be on fire," he said, pointing to outer-suburban electorates such as Bass, Cranbourne, Hastings, Pakenham, and Werribee (held by Labor), as well as Berwick and Croydon (held by the Liberals), along with regional seats held by the Nationals.
However, he noted that it will hurt the Liberals' chances of majority government more than Labor. "I just can't see Jess Wilson become premier of Victoria without One Nation." Wilson again refused to say whether the Liberals would do a preference deal with the minor party on Sunday. It could mean the Liberals' celebrations may be premature.
