Buoyed by recent off-year election successes, Democrats are mounting a bold challenge in a staunchly Republican Tennessee congressional district, with a potential upset victory posing a significant threat to Donald Trump's legislative agenda.
A Bellwether Race in Middle Tennessee
Voters head to the polls on Tuesday for a special election to fill the seat vacated by Republican Mark Green, who resigned in July. The middle Tennessee district, meticulously drawn by GOP state leaders, delivered 22-point victories for both Trump and Green in the last election cycle. Under normal circumstances, the Republican nominee, Matt Van Epps, would be considered a near-certain winner.
However, the political landscape has shifted. Following Democratic wins in Virginia and New Jersey earlier this month, which indicated a potential softening of support for the president, the party and its allies have invested heavily in the campaign of state representative Aftyn Behn. This influx of resources aims to engineer a political coup in what was once considered safe Republican territory.
"We still expect that the Republican will prevail, but would not be surprised if it were a single-digit race," cautioned Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report.
The Tightening Polls and Key Demographics
A recent survey from Emerson College Polling and the Hill underscores the contest's competitiveness, showing Van Epps leading Behn by just two percentage points, 48% to 46%. The district's geography is a key factor. While it encompasses large swathes of rural territory traditionally difficult for Democrats, it also includes a portion of left-leaning Nashville and the swing city of Clarksville, whose voters could decide the outcome.
Wasserman notes that Black voters, who constitute roughly 15% of the district, are crucial for a Behn victory, though their turnout can be unpredictable. Democrats have recently overcome similar deficits elsewhere, but it remains unclear if that level of enthusiasm will materialise in this specific race.
"It's a pretty solid Republican district," said Kent Syler, a political science professor at Middle Tennessee State University. Nonetheless, he added, Republicans "don't want to get caught sleeping. There's also no doubt that the Democrats are very energised and want to see how well they can do."
National Stakes and Strategic Gambits
The implications of this race extend far beyond Tennessee. A Behn win would narrow the GOP's House majority to such a fine margin that Democrats could potentially reclaim the chamber before the 2026 midterms, should just one or two Republican seats become vacant. The political shockwaves were felt last week with the resignation of former Trump ally Marjorie Taylor Greene.
National groups are treating the race as a pivotal battleground. The House Majority Pac has spent $1m on advertising, with its communications director declaring, "No Republican-held seat is safe." Another PAC, Your Community, has aired ads labelling Van Epps a "hedge fund puppet." On the other side, Trump has publicly endorsed Van Epps, and his main PAC, Maga Inc, is actively campaigning alongside the billionaire-backed Club for Growth.
The campaign has grown heated. Van Epps has dismissed Behn, a former organiser with the progressive group Indivisible, as a "crazy leftwing radical," citing a podcast comment where she expressed frustration with Nashville.
Even in defeat, a close result could benefit Democrats strategically. A narrow win for Van Epps in such a Trump-friendly district would help the party recruit candidates and raise funds for challenges in other red areas, forcing Republicans to spend precious campaign dollars defending seats they assumed were safe.
A national Democratic strategist working on House races confirmed this aim, stating Republicans are spending unusually large sums in the district "in a desperate last-minute attempt to avoid a Democratic overperformance." They argued the GOP's unpopular agenda is making even deep-red territory competitive.
Conversely, a Republican strategist downplayed the race's predictive power, suggesting special election turnout differs from midterms and can make strong candidates appear weaker. "It's like comparing apples and oranges," they said.
For Republicans, a decisive Van Epps victory would provide much-needed positive momentum. As Syler put it, a healthy win would "certainly help the Republicans and the president to, in essence, stop the bleeding that started earlier this month." The outcome in Tennessee will be scrutinised as a critical barometer of the nation's political mood.
