While media coverage focused overwhelmingly on Andy Burnham's victory in Makerfield, the Conservatives quietly won more by-elections than any other party on Super Thursday, June 18. According to local councillor and political consultant Matthew Goodwin-Freeman, the Tories secured the same number of parliamentary seats as Labour and the SNP, and one more than Reform UK, including a historic win in Aberdeen South.
Conservatives Top the By-Election Results
Of the nearly 20 by-elections held since the May local elections, the Conservatives have won more than any other party. On June 18 alone, they gained a Scottish Parliament constituency for the first time in 59 years, won two council seats off Reform UK in Essex, held two seats in Hillingdon, and came out top overall across all parties. Goodwin-Freeman noted that this challenges the narrative that the Conservatives are 'dead, irrelevant or in decline.'
Historic Scottish Win and Reform UK Gains
The Scottish Parliament by-election victory in Aberdeen South marked the first Conservative win in a Scottish parliamentary by-election in 59 years. The key issue on the doorsteps was oil and gas, with voters questioning why the UK is cutting off domestic supply during an energy crisis while neighbouring countries drill and sell back. Additionally, the Conservatives gained seats directly from Reform UK, while Reform won nothing. Goodwin-Freeman argued this shows voters are reconsidering Reform's credibility.
Defensive Successes Across the Country
Beyond gains, the Conservatives successfully defended seats nationwide. Goodwin-Freeman emphasized that every seat held is proof the party is not finished. He attributed successful campaigns to hard work, door-knocking, community understanding, and long-term relationship building, rather than slogans or stunts. He noted that voters still value visibility and politicians who put them first.
Green Shoots for Conservative Recovery
Goodwin-Freeman, who previously wrote about 'green shoots' after the local elections, said these by-election results reinforce that message. The Conservatives have risen in polls, with Kemi Badenoch now the least unpopular party leader. While acknowledging no room for complacency, he argued that a pattern of gains and holds points toward a possible recovery. The lesson, he said, is to work hard, campaign relentlessly, build local connections, and earn support.
