Donald Trump's signing of the Iran peace deal at Versailles, a symbol of national humiliation, underscores the extent of US retreat since 2025. The memorandum of understanding, with 14 clauses akin to Wilson's 14 points, admits that America could not achieve its war aims.
US Concessions Since 2025
Comparing the memorandum to a 2025 US proposal shows erased red lines. The earlier document demanded no domestic enrichment, imported nuclear supplies, removal of stockpiles, and dismantlement of enrichment facilities. Now, Trump conceded Iran's right to enrich uranium, citing regional nuclear programs. There is no rush to dismantle stockpiles, which may be diluted under IAEA watch inside Iran.
Sanctions Relief and Economic Implications
Miad Maleki, a former US Treasury official, warns that broadening financial authorizations could crack the core of US sanctions. Wider relief, including primary, secondary, and UN sanctions, would be the biggest recasting of US-Iran relations since 1979. These concessions aim to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the memorandum only ensures free navigation for 60 days, after which Iran will negotiate maritime services with Gulf states.
Reconstruction Fund and Economic Woes
A proposed $350 billion Iran reconstruction fund, to which the US will not contribute, requires Gulf state forgiveness despite recent bombings. Unfreezing $24 billion in Iranian assets may not ease acute economic woes.
Comparison with 2015 Deal
Unlike the 2015 arms control agreement, this memorandum is a preliminary document that may lead to stalemate or a deal resembling the original. Iran's denial of seeking nuclear weapons is weaker than in 2015, and verification methods remain unclear.
Trump's Motivation
Trump cited the risk of worldwide recession and oil reserve depletion, stating he did not want to be Herbert Hoover. Economic catastrophe drove the deal, despite the strategic retreat.
