Andy Burnham is heading back to the Commons after a resounding victory in the Makerfield byelection, putting Keir Starmer's leadership on notice and giving Reform something to think about. The mayor of Manchester described it as the "most consequential byelection of our lives," promising it would change not only the constituency but the country. He touted his win as a "turning point."
Victory Details
Burnham secured 24,927 votes (55%) for Labour, increasing the party's vote share by nearly 10%. Robert Kenyon for Reform won 15,696 votes (35%), while Rebecca Shepherd for Restore Britain trailed with 3,111 votes (6.84%). Turnout was 58.75%, up from 52.5% at the 2024 general election and the highest for a byelection in seven years.
Polling guru John Curtice cautioned against reading a wider surge for Labour into the results, telling the BBC that much of Burnham's success lay in "his appeal to those who wanted to see the back of Keir Starmer."
Leadership Implications
In his victory speech, Burnham said the people of Makerfield had "voted for change, they have voted for more power for the north and everywhere forgotten by Westminster." He added that Labour has a "final chance for change" and "must act upon it," his clearest nod to a potential leadership challenge.
Louise Haigh, former transport minister and key figure in Burnham's campaign, said Keir Starmer should agree to an "orderly and managed" handover of power. However, Energy secretary and Burnham ally Ed Miliband dismissed speculation about his own position.
Impact on Reform and Restore Britain
This was a bad night for Reform UK, marking their second byelection loss in a row this year. Despite polling 10-plus points ahead of Labour nationally, they struggled after sexist and homophobic posts from candidate Robert Kenyon were unearthed. Restore Britain, the newly formed hardline party, also failed to make an impact.
Prof Rob Ford of the University of Manchester said Restore had a message that worked for them, claiming Reform had become part of the same establishment that Makerfield voters believe does not serve them.
Scotland Results
In Scotland, the SNP held Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, while the Tories won Aberdeen South from the SNP, a boost for Kemi Badenoch. The conviction of former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell for embezzlement has further dented voter confidence.
Who is Andy Burnham?
Often called Britain's most popular politician, Burnham has the eyelashes of Betty Boop and the wardrobe of a Haçienda dad. His political philosophy, Manchesterism, advocates a more interventionist economy, public takeover of essential assets, and expanded devolution. He set out big ideas during the campaign, including public control of water and energy, property tax overhaul, and social care reform, but critics note his weaknesses on foreign policy.
Policy Re-alignments
Burnham distanced himself from his previous call to scrap the "no recourse to public funds" rule and said he would back controversial immigration changes pushed by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Some worry his flip-flopping on issues like EU membership could pull him to the right.
