A new poll suggests that Andy Burnham could help stem Labour's losses in London to the Green Party and Liberal Democrats. The Savanta survey for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London (QMUL) found that 25% of London voters said they were more likely to back Labour under Mr Burnham than under Sir Keir Starmer.
Poll Details and Voting Intention
The survey, which interviewed 1,038 Londoners aged 18+ online between 30 June and 8 July, put Labour on 31% for Westminster voting intention, the Conservatives on 19%, the Greens on 18%, Reform UK on 16%, the Lib Dems on 10%, and independents and other parties on 5%. Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British politics at QMUL, said: "Labour have lost about a quarter of their support since 2024 but remain comfortably the most popular party in the capital."
Seat Projections and Potential Losses
The findings could see Labour ending up with 28 MPs in London, less than half the 59 it won at the 2024 general election. Justice Secretary David Lammy may lose in Tottenham, Communities Secretary Steve Reed in Streatham and Croydon North, and former Health Secretary Wes Streeting in Ilford North, according to the QMUL analysis. Zack Polanski's Green Party could win 13 seats, the Tories 12, Nigel Farage's Reform 11, Lib Dems six, and independents five.
Burnham Effect on Voters
Dr Kelly noted: "This is good news for Burnham as a quarter of Green and Lib Dem voters stated that they were now more likely to vote Labour." However, 17% of Londoners said they were less likely to support Labour with the former Greater Manchester Mayor at the helm, while 12% said they would vote Labour anyway.
Multi-Party Battleground
Labour faces battles on multiple fronts. "Labour's decline opens doors to all the other parties but in very different parts of the capital," explained Dr Kelly. "The Greens are up 8% since 2024 and will be in contention for seats in places like Newham, Hackney and Lewisham. Support for the Conservatives is down slightly but they stand to gain seats in west London, and outer boroughs in the north west. Reform could pick up some seats in eastern outer boroughs, in Bromley, Bexley and Havering. The Liberal Democrats are about the same as in 2024 but could gain seats from Labour in the south west."
Key Seats to Watch
With the surge in support for the Greens and Reform, many seats are difficult to predict, with 20 to 25 showing the winner less than five per cent ahead of the second place. The Greens could win Dulwich and West Norwood, Hackney North and Stoke Newington, Hackney South and Shoreditch, Islington South and Finsbury, and Lewisham North, among others. Reform, despite the furore over Mr Farage resigning as MP to fight a by-election in Clacton, could win Barking, Bexleyheath and Crayford, Bromley and Biggin Hill, Croydon East, and several other seats. Jeremy Corbyn may retain his Islington North seat, while independents could win in Ilford North, Bethnal Green and Stepney, Chingford and Woodford Green, and East Ham. The Conservatives could win back Cities of London and Westminster, Kensington and Bayswater, Chelsea and Fulham, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, and Finchley and Golders Green from Labour, but may also lose seats to Reform.
