Andy Burnham will become Britain’s next Prime Minister and is set to unveil his Cabinet next week. The decision will set the direction of his Government and could determine whether he can defeat Reform and remain in power at the next election.
On Friday, the former Greater Manchester Mayor insisted no decisions had been made about his top team, but rumours continue about who will fill the great offices of state. Once Keir Starmer formally resigns as Prime Minister on Monday, Mr Burnham will be sworn in, deliver a speech outside Downing Street, and begin appointing his candidates.
Chancellor: Shabana Mahmood vs Ed Miliband
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is believed to be the frontrunner for Chancellor, with reports she is set to replace Rachel Reeves. Allies point to her record of delivery in the Home Office, while some argue she is more left-wing than people realise. However, her appointment has sparked fury among some on the left, who had hoped Ed Miliband would land the role. They also take issue with her hardline immigration stance.
An unnamed MP said: “If Shabana gets chancellor over Ed, it would signal that Andy isn’t willing to do things any differently on the economy and then we’re f****d before we’ve even started. A lot of us burnt a lot of political capital getting him in here - we need results.”
Ed Miliband has long been tipped for Chancellor and is understood to have worked on policy for Mr Burnham. However, opponents have engaged in a briefing war to stop him, claiming he could spook the markets and raise borrowing rates. This comes despite Mr Miliband having extensive Treasury experience under Gordon Brown. Any snub risks a backlash from the Labour left. Labour MP Rachel Maskell said: “Ed has been built as having that skill set, but also has got treasury experience in Gordon Brown’s team. That stature is needed in a very difficult department. If you do not have treasury experience, it does not fit Burnham's line about drawing on your experience.”
Home Secretary: Mahmood or Streeting?
If Ms Mahmood does not go to the Treasury, she could stay in post. She is understood to enjoy the role and has seen immigration fall under her watch. Migration to the UK has nearly halved over the last year, with hundreds of thousands fewer people coming to the country and tens of thousands fewer migrants being housed in hotels. Ms Mahmood has pushed for extensive immigration reforms opposed by many Labour MPs, but which Mr Burnham believes are necessary to win back voters from Reform.
Scottish Labour MP Chris Murray said: "Shabana has made incredible progress - the number of small boats is now 50% down on last year and net migration down 80%. But the Home Office needs serious, wholesale reform - particularly on sensitive settlement reforms and the abysmal asylum accommodation contracts we inherited from the Tories."
Another option is former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who resigned under Mr Starmer and backed Mr Burnham. Mr Streeting handled the Health brief well and is used to unpopular decisions. An ally said he'd succeed in any role and hoped he would land one of the four great offices of state.
Foreign Secretary: Continuity or Change?
In the face of the Ukraine war, conflict in Iran, and an erratic US President, Mr Burnham may choose continuity with Yvette Cooper. Ms Cooper is understood to want to stay and earned credit for handling the Peter Mandelson scandal fallout and the Iran crisis. If Ed Miliband is snubbed for Chancellor, he could be placed in the Foreign Office instead. A wildcard suggestion is a shock return for David Miliband, who would need to return via the House of Lords like David Cameron.
Defence Secretary: Healey or Jarvis?
John Healey’s resignation as Defence Secretary was part of the reason Mr Starmer was forced out, following a year of wrangling over funding for the defence investment plan (DIP). Mr Burnham has pledged to boost funding, likely requiring cuts to other departments. Dan Jarvis, Mr Healey’s replacement, is expected to be ousted, and Mr Healey has been linked to a sensational return. Other options include Al Carns, a former Royal Marine who has grown his profile by refusing to rule out running for leader. Wes Streeting has also been linked with this role.
Health Secretary: Streeting or Others?
Westminster has had few rumours over the Health Secretary role, leading some to assume Mr Streeting could return. One early suggestion is Scottish Labour MP Zubir Ahmed, a surgeon who still works in a Glasgow hospital and is considered one to watch. Another possible candidate is Rachel Reeves, in an appeal to party unity. Angela Rayner has also been linked, after resigning last year when the PM’s ethics chief found she had broken rules by underpaying stamp duty by £40,000 on her seaside flat. An HMRC investigation cleared her last month, allowing her to prepare for a dramatic comeback. Whoever takes the role will face sweeping changes to social care, a priority for Mr Burnham since his time as health minister under Tony Blair and Health Secretary under Gordon Brown.
Other Top Jobs
Louise Haigh quit as Transport Secretary after admitting she pleaded guilty to a fraud offence over a mobile phone theft. She has since become a key figure on the soft left and helped organise Mr Burnham’s campaign. She is tipped for Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, running the Cabinet Office. Lucy Powell, a long-term friend and ally, has been linked with Deputy Prime Minister. Miatta Fahnbulleh, on the soft left, is understood to be working on policy and has been linked with Housing. Chief whip Jonathan Reynolds is expected to become Business Secretary, replacing Peter Kyle. Lisa Nandy, a key ally, is in line for a promotion after serving as Culture Secretary.
Some MPs want candidates who can communicate and know what they want. One told this newspaper: "I'm agnostic on who any of the roles should go to, I just want them to be people who won't be given the run-around by the civil service or end up in their own little silo, have a clear sense of what they want/how it fits into the bigger vision that Andy has as PM, and can articulate that Comms-wise with a bit of panache!"
Key Players Inside Burnham’s Operation
Former Culture Minister James Purnell will be Mr Burnham's chief of staff, and Graeme Cooke will be director of Downing Street's policy unit. His political director will be Hayden Munro, who previously worked for New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern. Former chief executive of 38 Degrees Matthew McGregor will be director of political strategy, while former Sadiq Khan comms chief Sarah Brown will be director of communications. Grace Pritchard will be No.10 director of news, and John Stevens is staying on as press secretary. Jonathan Powell is expected to stay as national security adviser, and Varun Chandra as chief business adviser.
