Last week’s incursion of Russian drones into Polish territory laid bare inadequate Nato planning and communicated a warning of possible escalation. The US president, Donald Trump, keeps finding reasons not to act decisively against Russia, despite repeated tough rhetoric.
In May, when Vladimir Putin rejected a 30-day ceasefire, a promised “bone-crushing” US sanctions package failed to materialise. An 8 August deadline for Putin to agree to a ceasefire morphed into a red carpet welcome in Alaska, where Trump applauded a leader wanted for war crimes. The threatened “severe consequences” never happened.
Emboldened, Putin continues to prosecute his war aims in Ukraine and probe for western weaknesses. The drone incursion forced Nato to scramble F-35 and F-16 jets against cheap kamikaze drones costing around $10,000 each. The incident called for a robust response, but Trump instead appears to prefer bullying European allies.
Washington is demanding that the EU increase imports of US liquefied natural gas at an impossible rate, impose 50%-100% tariffs on China, and end all imports of Russian oil by Nato members—including Turkey, which imports 57% of its oil from Russia. These conditions are unlikely to be met, and the EU cannot afford economic retaliation from Beijing.
During this week’s state visit, Sir Keir Starmer will try to pin Trump down on decisive action. But from unproductive Alaska talks to diversionary tactics with the EU, Trump keeps finding reasons not to get tough on Russia. Ukraine’s prospects and wider European security are being undermined by a president who barks but never bites.
