Comment: Even if Donald Trump chickens out over Iran, the reckoning is coming. With his royal guests waved off, the US president headed back into his war room. But, says Sean O’Grady, no more bombs need to fall on Tehran and Lebanon to tip the world into an economic slump.
Trump's Claims of Victory in Iran
Trump says the U.S. has 'already won' the war in Iran but he wants to win by a 'bigger margin'. As Charles and Camilla decompress in Bermuda – no doubt with a nice single malt – they can enjoy the rave reviews for their highly successful trip to the United States.
However, the warm amber glow is chilled by an unwelcome reminder that not even the royal touch can cure Donald Trump of his erratic ways. No sooner had the royal couple left his company than the president was reverting to type. First, he told chancellor Friedrich Merz he was minded to withdraw US forces from Nato bases in Germany. Then he told the world he “might restart” the war in Iran (no one thinks it’s all over, Donald) – and now he’s turned on Italy and Spain, again threatening to bring his troops home. “Look, why shouldn’t I? Italy has not been of any help to us and Spain has been horrible, absolutely horrible.” Cue the price of oil spikes to $126 a barrel, the highest since 2022, and the dreaded $5 gallon of gas in America hoves into view.
Economic and Political Fallout
Remember when Trump promised no more wars and cheaper fuel? He doesn’t. It will wreck the Republicans’ chances in the November elections, and most likely mean he’ll spend the remainder of his presidency fighting impeachment at home and Iran abroad, plus a global economic slump. But he seems not to care. Little wonder people think the guy’s out of his mind.
And so, “Back to life, back to reality”, as the song goes. The King’s pleas and skilful arguments about the need for solidarity and strong alliances, for partnerships for peace, fell on the deafest of deaf ears in the White House. How elegantly His Majesty made his case, how powerfully he cited Magna Carta and quoted Abraham Lincoln, and how charmingly he sought to nudge his sullen host towards saner options.
Charles tried to persuade the president of a supposedly “self-evident truth” that “the challenges we face are too great for any one nation to bear alone”. It seems in vain. Trump still thinks his allies are freeloaders. We ought not have expected anything else, to be fair. Obviously, Trump may chicken out again. All this may be part of some five-dimensional chess game we mortals cannot comprehend, or the world might just get lucky in some way.
Global Economic Blockades
But, for now, we are stuck with two indefinite blockades around the Persian Gulf that are strangling world trade. Indeed, the chokeholds may extend to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, if the infamous Houthi rebels decide to join in again; and there are some nasty rumours about renewed tensions between China and America at the Panama Canal (just as they are brewing over the US Navy seizing China-linked maritime shipping travelling to and from the Gulf).
A sort of economic horror movie is playing out in front of us, and most of the world is powerless to do anything about it. The world is far less dependent on oil than it was in the past, but it is generally far more globalised and interdependent, as we discovered after the Covid pandemic and again the Russia-Ukraine war broke out.
Impact on Everyday Life
It is galling to think that in a few months’ time, food inflation could be at 10 per cent again, the airlines won’t fly for lack of fuel, and the NHS will be short of drugs for anything from hypertension to cancer treatment. The poorest nations on earth will, as ever, be hit hardest, unable to afford to bid for more costly energy and food, and will suffer as a result. So will the advanced economies.
The war doesn’t have to “restart”, as Trump puts it, no more bombs need to fall on Tehran and Lebanon for the global economic crisis to intensify to breaking point. All that is needed is for the ayatollahs’ and Trump’s mutually reinforcing blockades to continue.
The consequences are too gruesome to contemplate. Short of the terrible men who pushed us into the last world war, it is hard to think of any precedent for so few inflicting so much harm in so many ways on so many other billions of people.
As Pope Leo observed, the world is being “ravaged by a handful of tyrants”. At least Charles and Camilla tried to restrain one of them. It was worth a go.
