In November 2021, CIA Director William Burns travelled to Moscow to warn Vladimir Putin against invading Ukraine, but was only granted a phone call. Putin dismissed the warnings, citing a US warship in the Black Sea as evidence of Russian vulnerability. Burns returned convinced that Putin would invade, telling President Biden: 'Yes'.
This account, based on over 100 interviews with intelligence officials, reveals how US and British spy agencies accurately uncovered Russia's war plans. However, most European services and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy dismissed the intelligence as scaremongering, recalling the flawed Iraq War intelligence.
The CIA and MI6 correctly predicted the invasion but wrongly assumed a swift Russian victory. European agencies refused to believe a full-scale war was possible in the 21st century. Zelenskyy quashed concerns from his own military and intelligence elite, leaving Ukraine unprepared until the final days.
Four years on, the episode highlights lessons in intelligence analysis and the dangers of political denial. The failure to heed warnings led to Europe's most significant security breach since World War II.
