The assassination of Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, has dealt a devastating blow to the Iranian regime, potentially exceeding the loss of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Larijani's unique ability to navigate multiple levels of Iranian politics and his extensive international influence, particularly with China and Russia, made him a linchpin of the country's leadership.
Larijani's death represents the most significant loss for Iran since the US assassination of Qassem Suleimani in 2020. His removal confirms that Israel and possibly the US never viewed him as a transitional leader in the event of government collapse. According to Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council on Foreign Relations, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is focused on blocking ceasefire pathways and follow-up talks with Iran, for which Larijani would have been essential.
Larijani, 67, was an advocate of a nuclear deal with the US and a figure who maintained trust with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) while differing with hardliners. He played a role in efforts to prevent Mojtaba Khamenei from succeeding his father as supreme leader, working with former president Hassan Rouhani to delay the election. Despite these efforts, the transition proceeded, and Larijani publicly described it as a 'manifestation of consensus,' reflecting his pragmatic approach.
Without formal religious training, Larijani rose through Iranian politics, serving as head of state broadcasting and speaker of parliament for 12 years. His brothers also held key positions: Sadeq as head of the judiciary and Mohammad Javad as a diplomat. His death raises questions about US alternatives inside Iran, as President Trump has refused to endorse Reza Pahlavi, preferring an internal candidate, but the pool of viable options appears shallow.
