Tens of thousands of Russian troops are being deployed to eastern Ukraine for a planned offensive after 15 February, according to the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk region. Serhiy Haidai reported seeing increasing reserves moving towards Ukrainian positions, anticipating a three-pronged Russian advance.
However, there is widespread scepticism about the likelihood of significant Russian success. The UK defence intelligence briefing stated that Russia's aim is almost certainly to capture parts of the Donetsk region not already under occupation, but added that 'it remains unlikely that Russia can build up the forces needed to substantially affect the outcome of the war within the coming weeks'.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that seven Ukrainian towns had been 'liberated' in recent weeks, with operations progressing 'with success' in Bakhmut and Vuhledar. For six months, Russian mercenaries and regular troops have tried to capture Bakhmut, a small city with a pre-war population of 70,000. Ukrainian commander Denis Yaroslavskiy said only 2,000 civilians remain, with Russian forces capturing parts of the east and north and continuing to advance.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the military is closely monitoring Russia's attempt to encircle Bakhmut, vowing to counter the effort. He announced the appointment of leaders with military experience in border and front-line regions. Ukrainian forces claimed to have shot down a Russian combat aircraft over Bakhmut, though there was no independent confirmation.
Since retreating from Kherson last November, Russian forces have made little progress. An estimated 300,000 reserve troops have been recruited in recent months. Governor Haidai suggested that in Luhansk region, Russia would target Bilohorivka, Kreminna, and Svatove. President Zelensky has appealed to Western countries to accelerate deliveries of heavy weaponry, with the US recently agreeing to send long-range missiles that double Ukraine's attack range.
