Germany is preparing for Vladimir Putin’s forces to attack Nato’s eastern flank as early as next year, according to a leaked military document obtained by the German newspaper Bild. The secret plans outline a “path to conflict” between Russia and the military alliance, beginning with a mobilisation of Russian forces in February 2024 and a spring offensive that gains significant Ukrainian territory.
By July 2024, the scenario forecasts that Russia would begin conducting cyberattacks in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and incite violence among ethnic minorities there. Moscow could use these clashes as a pretext to deploy up to 50,000 troops to Belarus and western Russia by September, followed by the movement of troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad.
In December 2024, the document anticipates a “border conflict” and riots in the Suwalki Corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad. Moscow would then seek to exploit the chaos after the US election by launching an attack on Nato territory in January 2025. The scenario concludes with Nato ordering the deployment of 300,000 troops to the eastern flank in May 2025.
Mitko Müller, a spokesman for the German Defense Ministry, did not confirm or deny the details of the report. Jānis Sārts, Director of the NATO Center of Excellence for Strategic Communications, said the document outlined a training scenario, which is always a fictional situation, but noted that it is now more appropriate to use existing countries and regions. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov did not comment.
Nato's collective defence guarantee, Article 5, means an attack against one ally is considered an attack on all. US President Joe Biden has claimed Russia would attack a Nato country if it won in Ukraine, a claim Putin dismissed as “complete nonsense”. On Monday, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps announced 20,000 British service personnel would be deployed across Europe this year as part of Exercise Steadfast Defender 24 to deter Russian aggression.
