Pakistan's overnight air strikes on Kabul and other Afghan cities have ignited the most volatile confrontation between the two neighbours in decades, according to security analysts. The attacks come after months of rising tension over Islamabad's accusations that the Taliban is exporting terrorism across the border.
The timing could not be worse for world stability, occurring against a backdrop of Russia's war on Ukraine and the US threatening strikes on Iran. The irony of both Russia and Iran urging restraint is not lost, as the window for a US decision on air strikes on Iran narrows, with the carrier USS Gerald R Ford arriving off Israel and a strike group on USS Abraham Lincoln preparing in the Arabian Sea.
Pakistan has suffered a year of violent terror attacks it claims were plotted by groups supported from within Afghanistan. Border clashes between Pakistan's military and the Taliban in recent months have escalated into open conflict. While the Afghan Taliban possess tanks, artillery and light arms, Pakistan is a nuclear power with a large military, suggesting Kabul may resort to guerrilla and terror tactics.
Central to the war is Pakistan's claim that Afghanistan shelters the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP), a powerful terror group launching attacks inside Pakistan. The Taliban denies this, but groups like the Haqqani network thrive in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Historically, these groups have enjoyed varying degrees of contact with Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) agency.
Pakistan has long viewed Afghanistan as a strategic buffer against its bitter enemy India, providing Islamic influence and preventing encirclement. One security source noted: 'Pakistan needs Afghanistan as a stop gap, preventing what it fears most - encirclement by India. It also offers Pakistan some kind of comfort as an Islamic country.'
The strikes come despite a fragile ceasefire agreed in October 2025. Since the Taliban takeover in 2021, which Pakistan largely supported as it ended Western influence, Islamabad now seeks to clamp down on the terror threat while maintaining its strategic depth.
