Two countries on NATO's eastern flank have warned that Russia is preparing a possible 'provocation' in the Baltic states or Poland to test the cohesion of the Western military alliance, according to sources from two member states. Latvian intelligence stated on Monday that it sees indications Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland, though it would be well short of a full-scale attack.
A senior political source from a second NATO member made a similar statement last week, saying intelligence suggests Vladimir Putin is planning something against the Baltic states. The source suggested Putin might be willing to test US support for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in a desperate effort 'to throw the dice' as Russia struggles with its invasion of Ukraine.
On Thursday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk expressed his own concerns at a press conference after the Eastern Flank summit in Gdansk, saying: 'We also share, without exception, the opinion that the situation is very unstable and various types of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months.'
Latvian intelligence said Russia is not capable of opening a second front but is considering hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems. The warnings come at a time when Russia's advance in Ukraine has stalled, raising questions about whether the Kremlin would turn to alternative strategies to break the deadlock.
Keir Giles, a Russia expert with Chatham House, said: 'Moscow will be looking for ways to disrupt the current trend, through horizontal escalation or doing something elsewhere. We should not expect Russia to passively lose.' A Western military source expressed concern that Russia could lash out if Putin thought he was under pressure as the war shifted to the skylines of Moscow and St Petersburg, calling it 'a period of danger'.
