China has submitted a staggering application to launch almost 200,000 satellites into space, a move that has immediately sparked international concerns over a potential strategic 'land grab' in low-Earth orbit and the nation's broader space ambitions.
A Mega-Constellation to Dwarf All Others
On 29 December, a newly established Chinese entity known as the Institute of Radio Spectrum Utilisation and Technological Innovation filed applications with the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) for two colossal satellite networks. Dubbed CTC-1 and CTC-2, each constellation proposes to deploy 96,714 satellites across a combined total of 3,660 different orbits.
If realised, this Chinese mega-constellation would utterly eclipse the scale of existing projects. It would be more than four times the size of SpaceX's ambitious plan to orbit 49,000 Starlink satellites, making it the largest assembly of spacecraft ever proposed.
Security Ambiguity and Strategic Implications
With Chinese authorities remaining notably quiet on the satellites' precise purpose, experts and analysts have voiced significant apprehension. The stated focus, as reported by China in Space and attributed to the Nanjing University of Aeronautics, includes 'low-altitude electromagnetic space security, integrated security defence systems, and low-altitude airspace safety supervision services'.
This language strongly suggests the constellations could fulfil a role similar to the US military's Starshield system – a secure communications and tracking network derived from Starlink technology, used to great effect in Ukraine. The filing comes amidst heightened Sino-US tensions, with both nations competing fiercely for lunar dominance and control of low-Earth orbit, a critical domain for modern military 'kill mesh' networks.
Chief Master Sergeant Ron Lerch of the U.S. Space Force highlighted unusual Chinese satellite behaviour earlier this year, noting 'experimental' craft moving erratically in geostationary orbit (GEO). He warned of 'great risk... because of the unprecedented growth, as well as the unmanaged competition'.
A Probable Orbital 'Land Grab'
Perhaps the most pressing concern is that the application constitutes a strategic manoeuvre to reserve vast orbital real estate. Under ITU rules, China must launch at least one satellite within seven years of the filing, with another seven years to complete the full deployment. However, the nation's current industrial capacity makes completion of a 200,000-satellite project seem implausible.
China's commercial sector can produce roughly 300 spacecraft annually, with state production adding several hundred more. To meet this target, it would need to launch an impossible 500 satellites per week for seven consecutive years. Last year, China launched a record 94 rockets in total.
This stark reality leads many to conclude the application is a 'dummy' filing. Victoria Samson of the Secure World Foundation told New Scientist: 'It is possible they’re just trying to create some space for later on.' The tactic has precedent; in 2021, Rwanda filed for 327,000 satellites it could never hope to build.
Even within China, experts express scepticism. Yang Feng, of satellite maker Spacety, noted that 'leading in terms of filing applications does not mean surpassing in final execution', citing immense challenges in engineering, manufacturing, and launch capacity.
The move is particularly striking given China's recent criticism of SpaceX for creating 'safety and security challenges' by cluttering orbit with its own constellations. By filing with the ITU, China has effectively forced all future operators in this orbital region to prove their craft will not interfere with its claimed space, potentially locking out competitors for years.
