US overdose deaths fell through most of last year, suggesting a lasting improvement in an epidemic that had been worsening for decades, according to federal data released Wednesday. The decline has now been ongoing for more than two years, marking the longest drop in decades, although the pace of decline is slowing.
An estimated 73,000 people died from overdoses in the 12-month period ending August 2025, down about 21% from 92,000 in the previous 12-month period. Deaths have fallen in all states except Arizona, Hawaii, Kansas, New Mexico and North Dakota, though officials caution that not all deaths may have been reported yet.
Researchers cannot yet say with certainty why deaths have decreased. Possible explanations include increased availability of the overdose-reversing drug naloxone, expanded addiction treatment, shifts in drug use patterns, and the impact of billions of dollars in opioid lawsuit settlement money. Some experts also point to a shrinking pool of people likely to overdose, as fewer teens take up drugs and many illicit drug users have died.
A study by University of Maryland researchers, published in the journal Science, suggests that regulatory changes in China a few years ago reduced the availability of precursor chemicals used to make fentanyl. The authors note that US Reddit users reported a fentanyl 'drought' in 2023, and that the purity of fentanyl fell after 2022. However, the recent deceleration in deaths could be because producers in Canada and Mexico found alternative sources.
Another theory, from University of Pittsburgh researchers, links overdose trends to federal stimulus checks sent during the COVID-19 pandemic. They observed surges in overdose deaths after each of the three rounds of payments, and suggest that the end of those payments helped stabilise overdoses in 2022 and led to the subsequent decline.
