The SNP's hammering in Aberdeen South is the final confirmation that John Swinney's Holyrood election honeymoon is over. Swinney's party entered the by-election fairly confident they could hold a Westminster seat vacated by Stephen Flynn after he became an MSP. Party insiders felt the First Minister had moved away from Nicola Sturgeon's hostility to new oil and gas development, believing that the shift would see them home. Continuing Tory woes and a collapsing Labour vote fuelled SNP hopes of a narrow win.
In the end, the SNP lost by over 6,000 votes - handing the Conservatives their first Westminster by-election win in Scotland since the 1960s. It would be easy to link the defeat to the ongoing scandal over Peter Murrell's embezzlement. The details of the former SNP CEO's crimes have damaged the SNP and depressed their supporters. SNP supporters staying at home in protest at their party's poor financial controls would have been understandable. But Murrell was not the game changer in this by-election.
Aberdeen South: A Referendum on Oil and Gas
Aberdeen South was a referendum on the top economic issue facing voters - Labour's perceived hostility to the oil and gas industry. Cabinet Minister Ed Miliband opposes new oil and gas developments and staunchly backs a windfall tax on the industry profits. His policies are blamed for the loss of around 1,000 jobs a month in the once-booming sector. The SNP, despite Swinney refining his party's position, was seen as being on the wrong side of the debate.
Swinney's carefully worded support for new drilling was weak compared to the Tory position of 'drill baby drill'. The Conservative stance may be hypocritical - the previous Tory Government introduced the windfall tax - but it saw them hoover up tactical votes. Labour won over 24% in the same seat two years ago, but collapsed to single digits as their backers switched to the Tories. Reform voters also seemed to hold their noses by supporting Kemi Badenoch's party.
Blame Game Begins
The SNP blame game for this humiliating defeat has already begun. Allies of Flynn, who has long called for the SNP to champion new drilling, believe the party's mixed message on oil and gas proved costly. They say if he was leader, he would take the same position as the Tories by promising to extract as much oil and gas from the North Sea as possible. He is opposed in this endeavour by allies of Nicola Sturgeon who believe new drilling is a disaster for climate change. They backed Sturgeon's Bute House Agreement with the Greens and want Scotland to be admired on the global stage for its environmental policies.
Caught in the middle is Swinney who remains close to Sturgeon but has seen the need to soften her opposition to new developments. Most by-elections disappear without trace but Aberdeen South could have profound consequences for the Scottish and UK Governments.
