Swedish researchers have developed a simple blood test that can predict the risk of severe liver disease up to ten years before symptoms appear, offering hope for earlier intervention and treatment. The test, called CORE, uses a web-based calculator to assess five factors: age, sex, and levels of three common liver enzymes (AST, ALT, and GGT).
Liver disease kills around 11,000 Britons each year, often remaining symptomless in its early stages. The new tool, developed by scientists at the Karolinska Institute, could allow GPs to identify high-risk patients and provide life-prolonging treatment before irreversible damage occurs.
The study, published in the journal The Lancet, analysed data from over 480,000 people in Stockholm who had health checks between 1985 and 1996. After following them for 30 years, 1.5% developed severe liver disease such as cirrhosis or liver cancer, or required a transplant. The CORE model predicted these cases with 88% accuracy.
Lead researcher Hannes Hagström said: 'This is an important step towards being able to offer early screening for liver disease in primary care. Drug treatment is now available for treating people at a high risk of developing liver diseases such as cirrhosis or liver cancer.'
The test outperformed the current FIB-4 method, which is less effective for the general population. It was also trialled in Finland and the UK with high accuracy. However, further research is needed on high-risk groups such as those with type 2 diabetes or obesity.
Early signs of liver disease include nausea, weight loss, fatigue, and yellowing of the skin or eyes. The new test could be a vital tool in primary care to detect hidden warning signs and reduce the burden of this growing health problem.
