Britain is 'a few weeks away' from shortages of medicines ranging from painkillers to cancer treatments if the conflict in the Middle East continues, experts have warned. The war has disrupted supply chains for crucial raw materials, and health essentials could be next, with drug prices also expected to rise.
David Weeks, director of supply chain risk management at Moody's, described a 'perfect storm' caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and difficulties in sourcing generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients from India, known as the 'pharmacy of the world'. Air freight costs have doubled, and pharmaceutical companies are rerouting shipments via sea, lengthening journey times.
Mark Samuels, chief executive of Medicines UK, said that while there is no current crisis, the situation is serious. Medical distributors typically hold six to eight weeks of stock, but if the conflict drags on, shortages could emerge within weeks. The UK produces about a quarter of its medicines domestically, with a third coming from India and another third from the EU.
Higher transport costs and rising crude oil and natural gas prices are affecting the cost of petrochemicals needed to manufacture medicines and medical supplies. Wouter Dewulf, a professor at Antwerp Management School, said supplies are currently 'disturbed' rather than disrupted, but expects single-digit price increases if the situation worsens. Frank Van Gelder of Pharma.Aero noted that air cargo levels dropped 80% earlier this month, impacting drugs that require rapid transport.
