The NHS in England is facing its “worst-case scenario” for flu this month, with the number of people in hospital with the illness rising by 55% in a week. An average of 2,660 patients a day were in hospital with flu, up from 1,717 the previous week, marking the highest level for this time of year. By comparison, the same week last year saw 1,861 patients, while in 2023 the figure was 402.
Professor Meghana Pandit, NHS national medical director, described the numbers as “extremely high for this time of year”. She said: “With record demand for A&E and ambulances and an impending resident doctors strike, this unprecedented wave of super flu is leaving the NHS facing a worst-case scenario for this time of year – with staff being pushed to the limit to keep providing the best possible care for patients.” Pandit urged eligible people to get vaccinated, noting that just a week remains to ensure maximum immunity before Christmas.
The surge is partly attributed to a mutated flu strain, H3N2 subclade K, which the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) says “typically affect older adults more severely”. Dr Peter Abel from the University of Lancashire explained: “This winter is proving dangerous for flu because the main circulating strain contains several new mutations that we haven’t built strong immunity against.” Vaccine uptake stands at 71.7% among over-65s, but only 35.6% in pregnant women and 37.4% in under-65s with long-term conditions.
Demand for A&E services also rose, with a record 2.35 million attendances in November – over 30,000 more than the same month last year. Ambulance activity increased sharply to 802,525 incidents, up 48,814 on 2023. Dr Francesca Cavallaro of the Health Foundation warned that these pressures “expose the NHS’s fragile balancing act”, noting that the recent budget provided no additional funding for essential services.
