An early flu season, a new variant, and low vaccine uptake are putting the UK's health service under significant strain, according to public health experts. Prof Devi Sridhar of the University of Edinburgh notes that while 'super flu' is not a scientific term, it reflects the convergence of multiple factors making this winter particularly challenging for hospitals.
Flu has arrived earlier than usual, with hospital admissions reaching around 2,660 per day in December 2025—a 55% rise in one week and the highest level recorded for this time of year. A new variant of H3N2, called K, emerged too late to be included in this year's vaccine, reducing its effectiveness against that strain. However, the vaccine still offers partial protection, with real-world data showing 72–75% effectiveness in children and 32–39% in adults against hospitalisation.
Vaccine uptake remains low among at-risk groups: only about 40% of under-65s in clinical risk groups and 42.6% of two- to three-year-olds were vaccinated last year, though uptake in over-65s reached 74.9%. Additionally, private market vaccine shortages mean many pharmacies have low or no stock, forcing individuals to pay £18–20 and take time off work to get vaccinated—a cost that contrasts with the tens of thousands of pounds the NHS spends on hospital admissions for unvaccinated patients.
Prof Sridhar argues that the current system creates perverse incentives, with prevention costs falling on individuals while treatment costs burden the NHS. She calls for better communication about flu's severity and easier access to vaccines to alleviate pressure on health services.
