New data reveals that nearly half of the 6.23 million patients awaiting NHS treatment in England have received no further care since being referred by a GP. Some 2.99 million people have not had their first specialist appointment or diagnostic test, according to figures analysed by health data specialist MBI Health.
The Patients Association described the situation as an “invisible waiting list crisis” of staggering scale, with millions living in limbo while their health deteriorates. Rachel Power, the association’s chief executive, said: “If accurate, 3 million people are trapped in an invisible waiting list crisis, stuck without basic diagnostic tests or first appointments while their conditions worsen.”
The data casts doubt on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s pledge that 92% of patients will be treated within 18 weeks of referral by 2029. The target has not been met since 2015, and in May only 61% were treated on time. Of the unseen patients, one million have already waited more than 18 weeks without any care.
Barry Mulholland, founder of MBI Health and a former NHS manager, said the waiting list should be seen as a “frontlog, not a backlog” because so many people have not had their first clinical contact. He warned that unless this group is seen more quickly, the 18-week target will be impossible to achieve.
NHS England acknowledged the scale of the problem, noting that of the 7.3 million treatments patients are waiting for, 4.7 million (64%) are for people who have not yet had a first consultation or diagnostic test. Of those, 1.6 million have exceeded the 18-week maximum waiting time.
The medical specialities with the highest numbers of unseen patients include ear, nose and throat care, orthopaedics, eye care, gastroenterology and gynaecology, where between 67% and 75% of waiting lists consist of such patients.
