Chikungunya Virus Could Become Established in UK as Climate Change Drives Mosquito Expansion
A debilitating and painful tropical disease transmitted by infected mosquito bites is presenting an escalating threat to Europe, with researchers warning it could become established in the United Kingdom within the coming years. The chikungunya virus, which causes severe joint pain and fever, is increasingly viable in cooler climates due to rising global temperatures.
New Research Reveals Lower Temperature Threshold for Transmission
In a groundbreaking new study, scientists have discovered that Asian tiger mosquitoes can spread the chikungunya virus when air temperatures drop to just 13 degrees Celsius. This represents a significantly cooler threshold than previously understood, dramatically expanding the potential geographical range and seasonal window for transmission.
Sandeep Tegar, who led the research, explained: "Europe is warming rapidly, and the tiger mosquito is gradually expanding northwards through the continent. The lower temperature threshold that we have identified will therefore result in more areas – and more months of the year – becoming potentially suitable for transmission."
Record Outbreaks Across Europe Signal Growing Threat
In 2025, both France and Italy experienced unprecedented numbers of local chikungunya outbreaks, highlighting the virus's increasing foothold in European territories. The same mosquito species has also contributed to rising dengue fever cases across the continent in recent years.
Researchers from the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology have documented how these mosquitoes have initiated local European outbreaks after biting individuals who contracted the virus overseas. New data indicates that infection possibilities now exist for two to three months annually across much of Europe, extending to six months in Spain and Portugal.
UK Vulnerability and Climate Change Connection
The Asian tiger mosquito has already been occasionally detected in south-east England, and scientists warn it could become more prevalent across Britain as climate change continues to elevate temperatures. Currently, there remains a low risk of the virus in south-east England during summer months, but this vulnerability is expected to increase substantially.
Dr Steven White, the study's senior author, emphasized: "It is important that there is continued action to try to prevent the tiger mosquito from establishing in this country because this highly invasive species is capable of transmitting several infections that can cause serious health conditions including chikungunya, dengue and Zika viruses."
Virus Characteristics and Global Impact
Chikungunya is not typically fatal but can cause excruciating long-term pain. The UK Health Security Agency describes the virus as featuring a sudden onset of fever accompanied by severe joint pain that may persist for months or longer. Other symptoms include headaches, sensitivity to light, and skin rashes that usually subside within weeks.
The virus first emerged in Tanzania in 1952 and now affects over 110 countries across Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas. As of November 2024, approximately 480,000 chikungunya cases have been detected globally, resulting in 190 deaths.
Preventative Measures and Vaccination Availability
In August, British travellers were urged to take enhanced precautions against mosquito bites following a rise in returning UK residents with the virus. Warmer weather creates optimal conditions for mosquito proliferation and accelerates viral replication and transmission rates.
While two chikungunya vaccines are available, they can only be obtained privately through travel clinics or specific pharmacies in the UK. The United States has recently issued warnings for travellers to Seychelles, Bolivia, and Suriname, recommending vaccination before departure.
Scientific Evidence of Mosquito Presence in UK
Scientists discovered Asian tiger mosquito eggs in a trap at a freight depot near Heathrow Airport in October, providing concrete evidence of the species' potential establishment. This finding coincides with Britain experiencing its hottest summer on record last year, with experts predicting approximately 2 degrees Celsius of global warming by 2050.
Mr Tegar concluded: "Identifying specific locations and the months of possible transmission will enable local authorities to decide when and where to take action to reduce the risk or scale of outbreaks. Our research could also help predict how climate change could influence the future spread of the chikungunya virus."
