Millions of homes in London, Essex, and Kent are at risk of sinking as the climate crisis worsens, according to an analysis by the British Geological Survey (BGS). The study identifies areas most vulnerable to hotter, drier weather causing ground shrinkage, which can drag down building foundations.
Anna Harrison, a BGS scientist, said: “By combining geotechnical information about volume change potential with data about projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the coming century, we have been able to identify the areas of Great Britain most likely to become susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence.” She noted that London faces a “double whammy” of high building density and significant climate changes.
Subsidence can reduce property values and lead to mortgage refusals. Signs include diagonal cracks around windows and doors and sloping floors. In 2025, the UK had its warmest spring on record and the driest in over 50 years, with £153m in subsidence-related insurance claims in the first six months.
The BGS’s GeoClimate dataset forecasts that by 2070, about 500,000 properties could be affected under a low emissions scenario, rising to over 1.8 million under a medium scenario. In London, over 26% of properties could be affected under the medium scenario, with Camden, Islington, and Barnet among the most susceptible areas.
Harrison added: “Dry weather and high temperatures are a major factor in the emergence of shrink-swell subsidence. Looking ahead, these increases in hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters are projected to continue.” Mitigation measures will be needed to address the growing risk.
