Prime Minister Andy Burnham is facing a dilemma over whether to approve development of the Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas fields in the North Sea, a decision that could trigger the first revolt of his leadership.
A No-Win Choice
Public consultations on Jackdaw closed last Monday, with Rosebank closing today. The PM could make his choice next month. If he presses ahead, he will face criticism from the left; if he blocks the drillers, he will face it from the right; if he fudges, he will get it from both sides.
The decision comes at a crucial time, with Britain facing drought, wildfires and a summer of brutal heat. Former energy secretary Ed Miliband has previously called approval of Rosebank "climate vandalism". If Burnham allows it, he will be the vandal.
Political Fallout
Burnham quickly signalled a more "pragmatic" approach to the North Sea, raising expectations that he could permit some projects. That would delight Miliband's critics but enrage his supporters. Many on the left will never forgive Burnham if he presses ahead.
He also risks losing voters he has picked up from Zack Polanski's Green Party, who says approving Jackdaw and Rosebank would be "a dereliction of duty… whatever weasel words are used". Worst of all, he will be warmly applauded by Donald Trump.
Background Conflict
Miliband chose his side in this war by obstructing the projects, and left-wing activists loved him for it. Yet he also caused uproar. The energy industry argued that it is ridiculous to block domestic drilling while Britain is frantically importing gas from abroad and paying heavily for the privilege.
Critics accused Miliband of destroying jobs, sacrificing tax revenues, damaging the balance of payments and undermining Britain's energy security. They also said the domestic drilling ban did little to prevent climate change, because liquefied natural gas imported from the US and Qatar has higher emissions.
Those who hate Burnham's decision will make far more noise than those who back it. Welcome to Government, Andy. Enjoy.
