Andy Burnham faces a decision on whether to grant production consent for the Jackdaw gas field and Rosebank oil field in the North Sea, a choice that risks dividing the nation whatever he decides. The consultation process has just closed, and the decision is looming.
So far, Burnham has focused on popular measures such as removing VAT from electricity bills, capping bus fares at £2, cutting business rates for pubs and music venues, and cracking down on illegal waste sites. But with Parliament returning next week, harder choices are expected, including whether to hike taxes, cut spending or both, how to stop the boats, whether to back Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's immigration crackdown, and how far to backslide on Brexit.
Economic benefits versus climate concerns
Former energy secretary Ed Miliband wanted to block new drilling and go flat out on renewables, and took criticism for that stance. Britain still has roughly 25 million gas boilers, and fossil fuels will be needed for years, so using domestic supply makes sense, with the jobs and tax revenues that brings, rather than more imports. Explorers calculate Jackdaw and Rosebank could deliver £28.7 billion of economic benefit.
More fossil fuel use is bad for the planet, but Brits will burn them anyway, and the profits could support the green transition. Burnham appears minded to adopt this more pragmatic approach.
Internal party opposition
When a politician makes a decision, those who hate it shout louder than those who support it. Green activists, climate campaigners and Labour's left-wing MPs are already upset at suggestions that Jackdaw and Rosebank could go ahead. If they do, they will accuse Burnham of burning the planet, and the anger could be intensified by this summer's heatwaves. Miliband once called opening Rosebank "climate vandalism".
Climate campaigners say the economic damage from the projects will outweigh the benefits. But Britain produces less than 1% of global emissions, so blocking these fields won't save the planet, though it might create jobs and generate money.
A no-win situation
Once Burnham makes up his mind, those who support drilling will barely thank him, while those who oppose it will be raging. It is not an easy decision, and it risks an inglorious end to his honeymoon period with voters. For Labour's Mr Popular, it's going to come as a shock.
