A new study has raised alarm bells for fans and players attending the FIFA World Cup, warning that many matches will be played in unbearable heat. Researchers from World Weather Attribution modelled conditions for all 104 matches and found that a quarter will be played in unsafe conditions, while five are so hot that experts advise postponing them entirely.
Unsafe Conditions at Key Venues
The study highlights several venues without air conditioning, including Miami, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia. Notably, Scotland's clash with Brazil, scheduled for 24 June in Miami, is among the high-risk matches. Dr Joyce Kimutai, an author of the study from Imperial College London, stated: 'The climate that the tournament is being played in today has fundamentally shifted in just 32 years.'
Heat Index: Wet Bulb Globe Temperature
Rather than focusing on air temperature, the researchers used the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), which considers humidity, wind, and solar radiation. Dr Chris Mullington, co-author, explained: 'A 30°C day in dry, breezy conditions is very different from a 30°C day with high humidity, strong sun and little wind. High humidity reduces the evaporation of sweat, limiting the body's primary cooling mechanism.'
According to the analysis, a quarter of all games will exceed 26°C WBGT, a level at which FIFPRO advises safety measures like cooling. Five games are expected to exceed 28°C WBGT, equivalent to about 38°C in dry heat or 30°C in high humidity, which FIFPRO considers unsafe and advises postponement.
High-Risk Matches
- 16 June, 15:00 ET, New York/New Jersey: France vs Senegal (1 in 8 chance of 26°C WBGT)
- 16 June, 21:00 ET, Kansas City: Argentina vs Algeria (1 in 7 chance)
- 24 June, 18:00 ET, Miami: Scotland vs Brazil (near certain)
- 25 June, 19:00 ET, Kansas City: Tunisia vs Netherlands (1 in 4 chance)
- 3 July, 18:00 ET, Miami: Group J Winner vs Group H Runner Up (near certain)
- 11 July, 17:00 ET, Miami: Quarter Final (near certain)
- 19 July, 15:00 ET, New York/New Jersey: Final (1 in 8 chance)
While three of the 16 venues have cooling measures, over a third of games with at least a one in 10 chance of exceeding 26°C WBGT are scheduled in venues without air conditioning. This includes the final at New York New Jersey Stadium, which now faces a one in eight chance of exceeding 26°C WBGT and a three per cent chance of hitting 28°C WBGT—double the risk compared to 1994.
Fan Festivals at Risk
All 16 host cities will stage open-air 'Fan Festivals', exposing hundreds of thousands of supporters to unprecedented heat, even if stadiums are cooled. Dr Mullington warned: 'When WBGT exceeds 26°C, player performance can suffer. Above 28°C, the risk of serious heat illness becomes more concerning—not only for players, but also for fans. Heat stroke is life-threatening, and older people and those with pre-existing conditions are particularly vulnerable.'
Climate Change Blamed
The researchers attribute the conditions to human-induced climate change. Dr Friederike Otto, co-author, said: 'Our research shows that climate change is having a real and measurable impact on the viability of holding World Cups during the northern hemisphere summer. The 1994 World Cup may not feel distant, yet half of human-induced climate change has happened since then. That the World Cup Final itself faces a non-insignificant risk of being played in cancellation-level heat should be a wake-up call for FIFA and fans.'
