Keir Starmer is reportedly prepared to abandon his flagship pledge to remove almost all fossil fuels from the UK’s electricity supply by 2030 if doing so would push up energy bills, government insiders have told the Guardian. The move comes as concern grows in Downing Street that the cost of living is fuelling the rise of Reform UK, which leads national polls and is expected to win a byelection in Caerphilly this week.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is set to decide within weeks how much renewable energy to commission for the next few years. Allies say he is willing to buy less than experts say is needed to hit the 2030 target if paying for it would push bills significantly higher. One government insider said: “If it comes to a choice between hitting the target and overpaying, or missing it and keeping costs down, we will miss it.”
Experts warn that hitting the target would require Miliband to commission a record 8 gigawatts of new electricity generation in the current auction round. However, high interest rates and the scale of required investment are likely to push prices above the cost of building equivalent gas power. Dieter Helm, professor of economic policy at the University of Oxford, said Miliband was “deluded” if he thought clean power would lower bills by 2030, arguing that “the price is not coming down; it is going up.”
A report by the Tony Blair Institute published on Thursday urged the government to drop the 2030 target while sticking to longer-term net zero commitments. Author Tone Langengen said: “Launched in the middle of the gas crisis and in a low-interest environment, Clean Power 2030 was right for its time, but circumstances have changed.” Downing Street, which employs several former institute staff, takes its reports seriously.
While some officials want Starmer to publicly abandon the target to reassure voters and the energy industry, the prime minister is resisting an open disavowal. One government aide said: “The prime minister made this the centrepiece of one of his missions. He is not going to drop it now.” Another insider added: “It would be really silly to amend the target publicly – even if we accept the higher risk it won’t be met.” Green experts warn that ditching the target would reduce business confidence.
