The Met Office warns that a developing El Niño could become the strongest in living memory, with experts dubbing it a "super" El Niño and warning of significant global implications, including higher prices for UK consumers.
El Niño, meaning "little boy" in Spanish, is a natural climate phenomenon that pushes up global temperatures and can increase the risk of extreme weather. These events typically occur every two to seven years and last around a year. Trade winds blowing east to west across the Pacific Ocean can weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to spread eastwards and shifting rain patterns.
Record heat and stormy autumn forecast
Combined with human-induced climate change, the Met Office predicts 2027 is "very likely" to be the hottest year on record globally, with the UK at greater risk of a wet, stormy autumn. The warning comes as many parts of the world, including the UK, continue to reel from record drought, devastating wildfires, and havoc for farmers.
Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office, said: "We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts."
Global disruption and UK consumer impact
Caroline Maxwell, senior campaigner at WaterAid, told ITV News: "This year is going to be a super El Niño. Certain parts of the world are going to be more vulnerable because of El Niño and climate change. It means extreme weather patterns. Some countries are going to experience extreme flooding, whereas others are going to experience extreme drought."
The impact will be felt by UK consumers through disrupted production of food, clothing, and other goods, with the threat of higher prices. Reduced rainfall in Asia, for instance, could cause shortages of semiconductors vital for making mobile phones, laptops, and other gadgets.
Food prices under pressure
Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability at the British Retail Consortium, said: "We can definitely expect to see this putting extra pressure on food prices. Not only does it affect the global prices of things like meat and dairy products and wheat, it also affects things like animal feed, which are really crucial parts of production."
Finlay Hatch, project officer at the Food Foundation, said: "It will undoubtedly drive-up food prices yet further, cause food insecurity to spike and create huge economic losses across the global economy."
Gareth Redmond-King, from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: "An intensifying El Niño is set to add more heat into our climate, driving temperatures up almost everywhere in the coming months. This all adds hundreds of pounds to average UK household food bills, putting additional cost of living pressures on families. We can't do anything about El Niño, but we have one clear scientific solution already available to us to halt climate change: cutting our planet-heating emissions to net zero, for a future in which El Niño adds heat from a much lower, and less dangerous baseline."
Supply chain and market consequences
Climate scientist Dr Ella Gilbert told an event in June: "If climate heating is loading the dice towards more extreme events, then El Niño is adding weight. The developing El Niño will turbocharge global temperatures and disrupt supply chains, piling more pressure onto families in the UK who are already reeling from the spiralling cost of living crisis."
Bank Investec recently warned: "The confluence of El Niño, a European summer characterised by heatwaves and historic drought, also in the UK, and the ongoing war in Iran means that UK retailers could well struggle to avoid larger-than-usual food price rises for consumers moving forward."
Molly Corbett, an analyst at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, said: "While UK agriculture may not experience the most extreme weather impacts associated with El Niño, changes in global production can have important consequences for domestic markets. Changing output from major exporting regions can tighten global supplies and support prices, while shifts in feed, fertiliser and energy costs may also affect farm profitability. We will continue to monitor and analyse market developments as the climate shifts, as the indirect market impacts can often be more significant than the direct weather effects experienced at home."
