Over 2,700 people in England and Wales are estimated to have died from heat-related causes during the record-breaking heatwaves in May and June, according to research by Imperial College London, the Met Office, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). Of these deaths, 42% were attributed to the extra heat caused by human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels.
Breakdown of Deaths by Heatwave Period
During the nine days of extreme heat in May, approximately 550 deaths were heat-related. The June heatwave, lasting 11 days, saw around 2,200 such deaths. These figures do not include any deaths from the most recent warm spell. The experts found that 59% of May deaths (327 people) and 38% of June deaths (825 people) could be attributed to climate change.
Climate Change Impact on Temperatures
Climate change has raised daily temperatures by about 3-4°C during these heatwaves. Humidity levels were particularly high during the June heatwave. Dr Clair Barnes, research associate in extreme weather and climate change at Imperial College London, said: "We all love the sun, but people need to be aware that we are now seeing dangerous climate-change fuelled heat that is claiming lives, disrupting schools and hospitals and shutting down transport and infrastructure. It's time we woke up to the fact that we now live in a country with dangerously hot summers."
Urgent Adaptation Needed
Dr Barnes added: "To protect people during future extremes, we must urgently adapt to the reality of the climate we now have, and double down on global efforts to reach net zero emissions to stop this from getting worse." The research used historical mortality records and peer-reviewed methods to model fatalities.
Met Office and Health Experts Weigh In
Dr Mark McCarthy, manager of climate attribution at the Met Office, stated it is "clear that human-caused climate change is leading to more frequent and more intense summer heatwaves. This intensification is driving many impacts, including those affecting human health and mortality and other issues, such as agriculture, effects on transport infrastructure and biodiversity."
Regional Variations and Vulnerable Groups
The death rate was similar in the Midlands and southern England, despite warmer temperatures in the south. This may be due to northern populations being less accustomed to heat, making them more vulnerable. Dr Malcolm Mistry, assistant professor in climate and geo-spatial modelling at LSHTM, said: "Frequent heatwaves are rapidly evolving into a major health risk for people in the UK. It is vital that action on adapting Britain's homes, workplaces, and critical infrastructure to extreme heat outpaces these health risks, especially if we are to protect those most vulnerable to its impacts, such as older people, babies, and children."
Health Alerts Issued
During these heatwaves, several health alerts were issued across the nation. Professor Lea Berrang Ford, head of the UK Health Security Agency's Centre for Climate and Health Security, said: "These modelled estimates are based on past trends in temperature effects on mortality and provide an important indication of the potential health impacts of sustained hot weather, particularly for the most vulnerable among us."
