Families face the growing threat of food price hikes as a new report confirmed farmers suffered a “disappointing” harvest because of this summer’s drought conditions.
Data from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) showed the amount of key crops, such as wheat, produced in some parts of the country has been significantly below historic averages.
While winter barley yields were in line with their five-year average at 6.9 tonnes per hectare, wheat, spring barley and oat yields are all below historic averages as harvest draws to a close.
Impact on key crops
With the winter wheat harvest now complete, average yields edged up to 6.9 tonnes per hectare as harvest progressed in Scotland and northern England, reaching slightly above the 6.8 tonnes per hectare predicted in August.
But this year’s average wheat yields remain below the national 10-year average of 7.9 tonnes per hectare, and 11% below the national five-year average.
Spring barley crops were also “one of the most challenging” this season, averaging at 4.8 tonnes per hectare, around 17% below the five-year average. Oat yields averaged 4.6 tonnes per hectare, 14% below the UK five-year average, according to the AHDB. Only oilseed rape crops performed well, with yields averaging at 4 tonnes per hectare, approximately 19% above the UK five-year average.
Regional variation and quality concerns
The AHDB report also highlighted considerable variation across the country, with average wheat yields ranging from 3.9 tonnes per hectare to 11.5 tonnes per hectare depending on the farm and region.
It warned the quality of the crops harvested has also been impacted. “Overall, the final report reinforces a familiar theme from throughout the season: another highly variable harvest shaped by limited rainfall from spring onwards,” the AHDB said.
“While some farms further north have achieved results close to, or above, their long-term averages, the extent of the reductions across the national averages for wheat, spring barley, and oats confirm how challenging harvest 2026 has been for the UK.”
Warnings from industry leaders
Anthony Hopkins, AHDB director, cereals and oilseeds, said: “Harvest 2026 is now essentially complete, and we can see just how difficult it has been for farmers across many parts of the UK.
“Although crops harvested further north somewhat helped to moderate the significant reductions in the national average yields, the final report highlights the impact that prolonged dry conditions have had on a large numbers of farms. The areas and crops with the most significant hit to yields, have also often faced the greatest impact on quality, highlighting the importance of not just focusing on yields alone.”
The finding adds to fears of higher prices for shoppers as food producers are forced to pay more for what is available, or have to resort to greater use of imports. The risk, this time linked to the devastating impact of climate change, comes as households have already been warned to brace themselves for higher prices due to what is predicted to be an extreme El Nino weather impact on the production of food in large parts of the world.
Cut-throat competition between supermarkets has kept food inflation low this year – it stood at 1.3% last month, the Office for National Statistics said. However, industry body the Food and Drink Federation has predicted it could reach 3.9% by Christmas and then rocket to 6.4% by next summer due to a toxic mix of the Middle East conflict, El Nino, plus higher taxes and regulatory costs.
Another rise in the cost of the weekly shop is the last thing households need when they have already been hit with soaring fuel bills and the threat of a winter surge in energy prices because of the ongoing Iran war.
This year, the UK has experienced record-breaking deadly heatwaves in May and June, followed by heatwaves and the driest July on record for England and Wales, plunging the whole of Wales and half of England into drought. The extremely hot and dry summer comes after a dry spring – and is the second year in a row of extreme heat and drought, interspersed with extremely wet winters in what has been described as “weather whiplash”.
“This is the second, or in some cases third, successive challenging harvest,” Mr Hopkins continued. “At a time of high input costs, arable farmers in the worst-affected areas are really feeling the financial pressure right now.”
Helen Plant, AHDB lead analyst, said: “This final report reinforces just how variable harvest 2026 has been. While yields for wheat, oats and spring barley improved slightly as more crops were harvested in Scotland and northern England, the overall picture remains challenging for many growers.”
Ms Plant added: “Average yields only tell part of the story. We have seen huge differences between farms, with factors such as soil type, drilling date, previous cropping, local weather conditions and moisture availability all appearing to influence final performance. Despite some late improvements, average yields for several key crops remain below both recent and longer-term averages. Quality has also been highly variable, which will create additional challenges when storing and marketing grain over the coming months.”
