The United Kingdom is bracing for what could be the hottest day of the year, with temperatures potentially reaching 38°C later this month, according to the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. This would surpass the current 2026 record of 37.7°C, which was set during one of the three heatwaves already experienced this year.
Forecast Details for Late July
The GFS model indicates that temperatures will rise into the 30s again on July 27, peaking at 33°C in western England and reaching 32°C widely across southern areas. The following day, July 28, is expected to see highs of 35°C in southern and western England, with 34°C possible in the Midlands and eastern areas, and 31°C in northern regions.
According to the data, July 29 could be the hottest day of the year, with the mercury climbing to 38°C across large parts of western, central, and eastern England. Highs of 37°C are forecast from the south up to Yorkshire. The Mirror reported that temperature anomaly maps for July 29 show England and Wales shaded in dark red, indicating temperatures well above the seasonal average.
Counties Expected to Reach 38°C
The GFS model run suggests that as many as 15 counties could reach 38°C on July 29. These include: Lincolnshire, Leicestershire, Northamptonshire, Cambridgeshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Gloucestershire, Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, and Berkshire. On Merseyside, temperatures are expected to reach around 32°C.
Met Office Outlook
The Met Office stated that it is too soon to confirm whether heatwave conditions will persist beyond the next 10 days and towards the end of July. However, the Met Office forecast for July 22 to July 31 indicates that more "above average" conditions are possible. For the North West region, the Met Office predicts patchy cloud clearing to blue skies and strong sunshine on the day of the forecast, with temperatures in the low to mid-20s Celsius. The outlook for the following days suggests largely dry conditions with variable cloud and sunny spells, with a few showers possible on Wednesday.
