Scientists warn 'collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome'
Scientists warn 'collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome'

Climate change threatens to bring about humanity's collapse as civilisations face mounting pressure from our planet's shifting conditions, scientists have warned. Multiple "global tipping" points are approaching dangerous thresholds that could spell disaster for our species.

Catastrophic milestones

The most catastrophic milestones Earth is poised to cross include the collapse of the Amazon Rainforest, the complete melting of polar ice sheets and escalating global temperatures. Combined with our exploding population, these factors could trigger catastrophe.

Melting ice sheets will cause sea levels to surge, meaning less habitable land for humanity while our numbers continue to swell, pushing populations further inland. Rising temperatures will render vast swathes of the globe uninhabitable, again forcing climate refugees to relocate, while the destruction of the Amazon and other rainforests will accelerate planetary warming.

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Expert warning

Australian National University emeritus professor Will Steffen believes it will require a minimum of 30 years for humanity to reverse course, by which time it may already be too late. Prof Steffan told Voice of Action: "Given the momentum in both the Earth and human systems, and the growing difference between the 'reaction time' needed to steer humanity towards a more sustainable future, and the 'intervention time' left to avert a range of catastrophes in both the physical climate system (e.g., melting of Arctic sea ice) and the biosphere (e.g., loss of the Great Barrier Reef), we are already deep into the trajectory towards collapse."

"That is, the intervention time we have left has, in many cases, shrunk to levels that are shorter than the time it would take to transition to a more sustainable system. The fact that many of the features of the Earth System that are being damaged or lost constitute 'tipping points' that could well link to form a 'tipping cascade' raises the ultimate question: Have we already lost control of the system? Is collapse now inevitable?"

Prof Steffan used a comparison to illustrate humanity's predicament. He said: "If the Titanic realises that it's in trouble and it has about 5km that it needs to slow and steer the ship, but it's only 3km away from the iceberg, it's already doomed."

Permafrost threat

The planet continues heating up, with experts confirming global temperatures have climbed by approximately 0.15-0.20C each decade. This has resulted in the obvious disappearance of ice at the polar regions, but frozen water is also thawing below ground level, researchers have cautioned.

Permafrost represents a perpetually frozen stratum below the surface, spanning 18 million square kilometres across the upper regions of the northern hemisphere. This icy layer encompasses rocks, earth, sand and preserves remnants of vegetation and microorganisms that have remained trapped within the permafrost for countless millennia.

However, this means the carbon dioxide (CO2) from deceased vegetation and microorganisms has also been locked away in Earth's natural icebox - and with permafrost starting to thaw at a worrying pace, this CO2 will ultimately escape into the atmosphere. Present calculations indicate there could be as much as 1.5 trillion metric tons of carbon held within permafrost.

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