A new study has concluded that New Orleans has reached a 'point of no return' due to the climate crisis, with the city potentially surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico before the end of this century. The research, published in Nature Sustainability, warns that ongoing sea-level rise and wetland erosion will swallow the area within decades, necessitating immediate relocation planning.
Southern Louisiana faces 3-7 metres of sea-level rise and the loss of three-quarters of its remaining coastal wetlands, causing the shoreline to migrate up to 100km inland. This would strand New Orleans and Baton Rouge, making the region the 'most physically vulnerable coastal zone in the world', according to the researchers.
Billions have been spent on levees and floodgates since Hurricane Katrina, but the study says these defences cannot save the city long-term. Co-author Jesse Keenan of Tulane University stated: 'In paleo-climate terms, New Orleans is gone; the question is how long it has.' He added that the timeframe is 'most likely decades rather than centuries'.
The paper calls for coordinated relocation starting with the most vulnerable communities, such as those outside the levee system in Plaquemines parish. Keenan emphasised: 'New Orleans is in a terminal condition, and we need to be clear with the patient that it is terminal.'
Another study released last week found that 99% of New Orleans' population is at major risk of severe flooding, the highest exposure of any US city. Co-author Wanyun Shao of the University of Alabama described the situation as 'a timebomb', agreeing that relocation is inevitable.
